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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022031
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015

Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared
depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to
the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops.
Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of
the cyclone's surface center.  Subsequently, the initial intensity
remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB.  Guidance still indicates that the depression could
become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours.  Afterward, the
cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of
the IVCN and FSSE forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt.  The depression is
forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system
over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days.  As the tropical
cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow
collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a
generally north-northwestward direction or meander until
dissipation.  The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and
is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF
blend) model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 20:31:51 UTC