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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 282031
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

Ulika's cloud pattern consists of a small area of deep convection
near the estimated center, with limited or no banding features.
The current intensity estimate has been reduced to 50 kt which is a
blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Vertical shear,
mainly due to westerly upper-level flow associated with a broad
trough over the east-central Pacific, is predicted by the global
models to increase substantially over the next couple of days.
This, along with dry mid-tropospheric air, should cause steady
weakening and Ulika is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical
remnant low in 48 hours or less.

Ulika is turning gradually to the left, and the initial motion is
now estimated to be 010/6.  As long as it maintains some vertical
depth, the small circulation of the tropical cyclone should
continue to rotate counter-clockwise around a mid-level low to its
west.  Assuming that the system becomes a shallow cyclone in 36 to
48 hours, it should move generally westward in the low-level flow
by that time.  The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one and lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 15.1N 138.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 16.0N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 17.4N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 17.6N 141.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1800Z 17.7N 144.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain