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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 211455
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Early visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate
that the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few
days over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective
organization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression.
The low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is
estimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of
a developing cyclonically curved band.  Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and
1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.

The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental
conditions are very favorable for the depression to become a
tropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most
of the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the
official forecast which follows the consensus quite close.

The depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees
at about 12 kt.  The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent
deep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from
Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not
expected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general
track well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days.
The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope
and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN.

This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during
this very busy July.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z  9.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z  9.4N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 10.0N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila