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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031434
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

Kevin has been producing bursts of cold-topped convection this
morning, although banding features are limited.  The latest Dvorak
intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are at 45 kt, and this
will be used for the advisory intensity.  The storm is in an
environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear, which should
prevent significant additional strengthening.  However a bit more
intensification could occur, as indicated in the official forecast.
In a day or so, Kevin is likely to be ingesting drier and more
stable mid-level air and that, along with the shear, should lead to
a weakening trend.  The official intensity forecast is similar to
the latest intensity model consensus.

The center is difficult to locate on geostationary satellite images,
and the initial motion is an uncertain 350/5.  Over the next couple
of days, Kevin should turn toward the northwest while it moves to
the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone.  Afterwards, the weakening
and increasingly shallow cyclone should turn westward following the
low-level steering flow.  The official track forecast is nudged a
bit to the west of the previous one.  This is close to the latest
dynamical model consensus, albeit a little slower in the latter part
of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 17.9N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 18.8N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.9N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.9N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 22.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 22.2N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 14:34:29 UTC