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Hurricane HERNAN Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ43 KNHC 280240

800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Hernan's cloud pattern has already begun to deteriorate a bit since
it reached hurricane strength this afternoon.  The last few visible
images showed arc clouds emanating away from the western semicircle,
which could be an indication that drier air is getting into the
circulation.  Satellite intensity estimates are somewhat
conflicting, with the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB
increasing from 6 hours ago while the objective T-numbers from the
ADT have decreased.  Therefore, the intensity is being held at 65 kt
for this advisory.  Given the recent satellite trends, however,
Hernan may not last as a hurricane for much longer.  The cyclone
only has about 12-18 hours left before it crosses the 26C isotherm
and plows over much colder water, leading to a quicker weakening
trend after 24 hours.  The main difference with the previous
forecast is at 48 hours and beyond, with Hernan now expected to
become a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5.

Hernan continues to move northwestward with an initial motion of
310/13 kt.  This motion is being caused by a strong mid-level ridge
located over Mexico and the southern United States and should
continue for the next 36 hours.  After that time, the cyclone is
forecast to turn west-northwestward and slow down considerably as
it is left in an environment of weak low-level steering.  The
updated NHC forecast is nudged a bit north of the previous forecast
beyond 48 hours toward the model consensus TVCE.


INIT  28/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 21.8N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 23.1N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 23.9N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 24.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Monday, 28-Jul-2014 02:40:23 UTC