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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290852
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Jimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight with
a symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrus
outflow in all quadrants.  The current intensity estimate is 130 kt,
a blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS.
While large-scale environmental factors are still favorable for
further strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through an
eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can cause
fluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However,
Jimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the next
several days.  A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanic
and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less
conducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week.
The new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and the
statistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight on
the intensity consensus at days 3 to 5.

The initial motion estimate is 270/8.  Jimena's heading should
become west-northwestward later today and continue in that general
direction for the next several days while it moves around the
subtropical ridge.  As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around
140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96
hours.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new
track forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar to
the adjustment made on the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Aug-2015 08:52:54 UTC