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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250231
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has become a little better
organized during the past several hours with the center of
circulation located between two curved bands to its north and south.
The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement
with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and
automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen during the next 3 to 4
days while it remains over warm water, in a moist environment, and
in moderate wind shear conditions.  Some weakening could occur by
the end of the forecast period when the system moves over cooler
waters and into a drier air mass.  The intensity guidance is in
relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the
intensity model consensus.

The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt
away from the coast of Mexico.  A decrease in forward speed is
expected on Thursday when the cyclone moves closer to a break in
the subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected to rebuild to the
north of the cyclone this weekend, and that should cause the system
to move westward at a faster pace.  The NHC track forecast is nudged
to the south of the previous one to be in better agreement with the
latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 15.7N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.8N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.2N 115.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 17.6N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 17.8N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 17.9N 124.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi