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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272036
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Lester's cloud pattern has increased some in organization during
the last several hours.  The cyclone's small central dense
overcast has become more symmetric, with a well-defined 20 n mi
wide eye evident in visible satellite imagery.  A broken band is
also wrapping around the southeastern semicircle of the Lester's
circulation.  Dvorak T-numbers are a consensus T5.0 from both
satellite agencies. Based on these data, the initial intensity
estimate is increased to 90 kt.

Lester has been moving a little faster, and the initial motion
estimate is 270/11.  A strong subtropical ridge to the north of
Lester should steer the cyclone on a nearly due-west course for at
least the next few days.  After about 72 hours, there are
differences in the strength of the subtropical ridge north of
Lester, which are somewhat dependent on the progression of a
mid-latitude trough through the eastern Pacific. There also exists
some potential for binary interaction with Madeline late in the
forecast period, which could impart a more poleward motion to
Lester. The GFS-based guidance continues to lie on the northern side
of the guidance envelope, while the latest ECMWF solution remains on
the southern edge. The new track forecast is nearly identical to the
previous one through 48 hours but has been shifted northward in the
direction of a consensus of the ECMWF, HWRF, GFS, and UKMET models
after that time.

A nearly uniform easterly flow over Lester throughout the
troposphere is forecast for several days, resulting in a low-shear
environment. SSTs should be warm enough next day or so for
some intensification, but the environment around Lester will be
drying. In about 36 to 48 hours, the hurricane should begin to
traverse a region of lower SSTs between 130W and 140W.  This will
occur at a time when global models forecast the near-storm
environment to become extremely dry. Slow weakening should commence
around this time and throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. This scenario is in line with the guidance, and the new
intensity forecast is in best agreement with the multi-model
consensus and LGEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 17.9N 119.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 18.0N 121.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 18.2N 123.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 18.3N 126.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 18.5N 129.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 18.8N 135.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 18.9N 139.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 19.5N 144.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Aug-2016 20:37:16 UTC