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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 201444
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The center of the depression remains difficult to find, but it
appears to be near a small area of disorganized convection.  As
with the previous advisory, the satellite intensity estimates remain
largely unchanged and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt.

There is again no change to the intensity forecast thinking. A
combination of shear from an upper-level low to the north and
interaction with Tropical Storm Greg to the east should cause the
depression to weaken and eventually dissipate.  The intensity
forecast has the system degenerating into a remnant low after 24 h
and dissipating after 48 hr as it become absorbed into Greg.
However, the system could decay to a remnant low at any time before
then.

The initial motion remains 245/5 kt.  The depression is still
expected to be advected slowly southwestward around the
circulation of Greg until dissipation.  The new forecast track is an
update of the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 13.4N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 12.9N 123.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 12.1N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 11.6N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1200Z 11.6N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven