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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272033
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade with
convection now confined to the southeastern portion of the
circulation.  The center has also become partially exposed.
Subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI- numbers continue to
decrease, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 55 kt.  This is
also supported by a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed winds to
50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation. The cyclone is
expected to continue weakening while it moves over sea surface
temperatures of 22 to 23 degrees Celsius, and into a more stable
environment during the next couple of days.  Marie should become a
post-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast to continue
during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is steered around
the western side of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern
Baja California peninsula.  After Marie becomes a shallow system, it
should turn westward or west-southwestward in low-level
northeasterly flow.  The new NHC track is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern
California.  These swells are expected to persist for another day or
so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high
tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 23.1N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 24.1N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 25.8N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 27.6N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 29.0N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 30.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z 30.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z 29.5N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 20:33:59 UTC