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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ43 KNHC 091453

800 AM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the far
southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific has become better
organized.  Curved banding features have increased, along with a
growing area of deep convection near the center.  Thus the system
is declared a tropical depression, the 18th of the season. The
initial wind speed is set to 30 kt using the Dvorak estimate
from TAFB.  The minimum pressure is 1008 mb on the basis of buoy
43535 near the depression, which reported 1009 mb a couple of hours

The cyclone is expected to be in a favorable environment for
strengthening for the next few days, with low wind shear, very warm
waters and high mid-level moisture.  Thus steady intensification is
forecast until early next week.  Thereafter, an increase in
southwesterly shear and some cooler waters should cause the cyclone
to weaken some by day 5.  The official intensity prediction is on
the high side of the intensity guidance, a reflection of both the
conducive environment and the low bias of the guidance during this
season. It would not be surprising if the cyclone intensified more
than shown here given the large-scale environment, but timing this
is not possible at this time.

The depression is moving westward at about 12 kt.  This general
motion is expected for the next 2-3 days while it remains under the
influence of the subtropical ridge located over the eastern and
central Pacific.  This pattern is expected to change quickly after
day 3 when a mid-latitude trough erodes the ridge, causing the
cyclone to recurve well east of the Hawaiian Islands.  For a first
forecast, the guidance is in rather good agreement, and the
official forecast is close to the overall consensus, with a bit more
weight on the ECMWF model.


INIT  09/1500Z 11.1N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 11.3N 133.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 11.7N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 12.0N 138.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 12.2N 140.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 14.5N 145.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 17.0N 144.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Friday, 09-Oct-2015 14:53:22 UTC