Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 310856
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

Jimena has maintained a symmetric very cold CDO with a well-defined
25 n mi diameter eye.  A 0307Z SSMIS pass indicated that a
concentric eyewall structure was in place with a secondary eyewall
located about 30-40 n mi from the center.  A blend of subjective
TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications along with UW-CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique are the basis for Jimena's 130-kt intensity.

Currently, Jimena is over warm 28 deg C water and is embedded in
weak northerly vertical shear conditions.  While these should favor
continuing an extreme intensity, the mid-level moisture is somewhat
dry and the atmosphere not very unstable for deep convection. During
the next few days, the SSTs should gradually cool while the vertical
shear should gradually increase as Jimena moves west-northwestward.
Complicating the forecast is the possibility that Jimena may undergo
another concentric eyewall cycle, with short-term weakening followed
by possible reintensification. However, such variations are
difficult to precisely predict. The intensity forecast is nearly the
same as from the previous advisory and is closest to the statistical
SHIPS model from 12 to 36 hours, and is close to the IVCN consensus
technique thereafter.

Jimena is moving quickly toward the west-northwest at 15 kt,
primarily through the steering induced by a deep-layer ridge to its
north.  The ridge should weaken and become oriented
northwest-to-southeast during the next couple of days.  This should
result in Jimena turning toward the northwest at a slower rate of
speed. The forecast track is nearly identical to the previous
advisory and is based upon the very tightly packed consensus of the
skillful dynamical models.

Jimena's wind radii were significantly adjusted outward based upon
an 0216Z CIRA AMSU pass and an 0536Z partial ASCAT pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 15.3N 133.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 15.7N 135.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 16.3N 137.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 18.5N 142.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 19.5N 143.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 20.5N 144.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Aug-2015 08:57:01 UTC