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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ43 KNHC 280831

200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past
few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on
the north side of the old central dense overcast.  The initial
wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest
satellite classifications.  Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters,
it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and
should become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  The large
circulation will take some time to spin down even without
convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual
decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt.  This general motion
is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern
California.  Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow.
Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours,
so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction.  Beyond day
3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous
forecast, is a little bit farther north.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.


INIT  28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 08:32:15 UTC