000
WTPZ43 KNHC 082030
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025
 
Deep convection has been increasing near the center and in curved
bands on the western side of the circulation during the past
several hours. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed peak
winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that data, the depression
has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cosme with the initial
intensity set at 40 kt.
 
Cosme will likely continue to strengthen for the next day or two as
it remains in an environment of low to moderate wind shear, abundant
moisture, and over warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
peak of 60 kt at 24 and 36 hours, and it wouldn't be surprising if
Cosme becomes a hurricane during that time frame. By mid-week,
however, the storm is expected to move over progressively cooler
waters and into a drier airmass, which should cause the system to
begin weakening. Cosme is now forecast to become a remnant low in 3
days and dissipate in 4 days.

The storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt, and that general motion 
is expected to continue during the next couple of days.  After that 
time, the interaction with Barbara will likely result in an initial 
slow down and then turn to the northeast. There is a fair amount of 
spread in the guidance due to the complexity of this interaction.  
The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of 
the previous one to account for the initial motion/position and to 
be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 13.3N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 14.0N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 14.7N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 15.1N 113.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi