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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280833
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

There has not been much change with the depression during the last
several hours.  Although an area of deep convection has been
persisting near and to the south of the center, the cloud pattern
lacks banding features.  The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in
agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB.

The depression is currently experiencing about 15 kt of
north-northwesterly shear, which is the reason why most of the
thunderstorms are located to the south of the center.  This
continued shear, in combination with a stable air mass to the north
of the cyclone should allow for only slight strengthening, if any,
during the next day or two.  After that time, weakening is expected
when the system moves into an even more stable air mass and over
slightly cooler water. None of the intensity models show significant
strengthening, and the NHC forecast lies near the ICON consensus
model.  Most of the global models show the depression opening into a
trough in 3 to 4 days, and the NHC forecast follows that theme by
showing dissipation at 96 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt.  A
low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the system should
cause the cyclone to turn westward by tonight, and that general
motion is forecast to continue until the system dissipates.  The
NHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous one,
trending toward the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 16.2N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 16.6N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 16.9N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 17.2N 134.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 17.3N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 17.3N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jul-2015 08:33:35 UTC