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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290852
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

Deep convection dissipated well northeast of Roslyn's center around
0300 UTC, and the cyclone is now a convection-less swirl of low
clouds.  Partial ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicated that
maximum winds were near 25 kt, and that is set as the advisory
intensity.  Deep convection is unlikely to re-develop due to very
strong shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and a dry
environment, and Roslyn will probably be declared a remnant low
later today.  The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by 36 hours,
which is shown by all the global models.

The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 345/6 kt.  Now that
Roslyn is a shallow system, it should turn west-northwestward
during the next 24 hours, steered by a low-level ridge to its
north.  The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the latest
consensus aids, and it is a little north of the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 22.7N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 23.4N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z 23.8N 116.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg