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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290253
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past
12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows
that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C.  Since deep
convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is
expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn't already.  In
the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt
based on an earlier ASCAT pass.  The large circulation will take
some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is
forecast through the 5-day period.

The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the
western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of
California and the Baja California peninsula.  Marie will slow down
during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge.  Then,
the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward
and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period.  The
NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE
model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 27.0N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 28.2N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0000Z 29.4N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 30.3N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 30.8N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z 30.8N 138.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 30.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 30.0N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 02:53:28 UTC