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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 292033
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester continues to strengthen.  Visible and enhanced BD-curve
infrared imagery show a symmetric, thick, inner core ring consisting
of cloud tops of -70 to -75C and an impressive fanning outflow
pattern.  A blend of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates supports raising the initial intensity to 115
kt, making Lester a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A low vertical shear environment should
persist during the next several days, and the sea surface
temperatures are expected to remain around 26C as the cyclone moves
along the climatolgically oriented eastern Pacific SST gradient.
Statistical-dynamical intensity models indicate that the hurricane
may have already peaked, but there still could be some intensity
fluctuations during the next 12 hours.  Afterward, the cyclone
should gradually weaken, most likely caused by an increasingly
marginal thermodynamic environment and a decreasing oceanic heat
content.  The intensity forecast is nudged a little higher due to
the current intensification trend, and is close to the intensity
multi-model consensus.

Lester's initial motion estimate is a steadfast 270/12.  A
subtropical high anchored to the north of Lester should influence a
generally westward course during the next 3 days.  Through the
remaining forecast period, the cyclone is expected to gradually turn
west-northwestward in response to some binary interaction with
Madeline situated to the southwest of Lester.  The official forecast
is based on this scenario and sides with the TVCN consensus model
and is basically an update of the previous package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 18.0N 130.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 18.0N 132.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 18.1N 134.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 18.0N 137.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 18.1N 139.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 19.6N 148.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 21.2N 153.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts