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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220255
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with
scatterometer surface wind data, indicate that the large low
pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized during the past
several hours. Curved bands of deep convection have developed near
the well-defined center, and the system now meets the criteria of a
tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a
satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, which is
supported by winds of 31 kt and 30 kt noted in two earlier ASCAT
overpasses. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and has
been expanding.

The initial motion estimate of 295/12 kt is based on microwave fix
positions over the past 9 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly
clustered and in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving
west-northwestward and remaining well offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico throughout the forecast period.  This is due to a
strong subtropical ridge anchored over the southern U.S. and
northern Mexico. The NHC track forecast closely follows the
consensus model TVCE.

The cyclone is expected to remain in very favorable thermodynamic
and oceanic environments that will be conducive for development. The
official intensity forecast is fairly robust, but not nearly as
aggressive as the SHIPS model, which brings the system to category
4 strength in 96 hours. The NHC forecast more closely follows the
intensity consensus model ICON, making the cyclone a hurricane in
48 hours and brings it to near major hurricane status by Day 5.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 12.4N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 02:55:56 UTC