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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230838
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Convection associated with Lowell has continued to wane overnight
with only a small convective band noted well north of the center in
the most recent microwave image.  Recent ASCAT data supports an
initial wind speed of 40 kt.  Lowell should continue to gradually
weaken during the next several days while it moves over colder
water and into a drier and more stable airmass.  The convection is
likely to dissipate later today, and Lowell is expected to become a
remnant low within 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt.  The cyclone is forecast
to continue moving northwestward today, but should turn west-
northwestward in 24 to 36 hours when it comes under the influence
of a low-level ridge to the north.  There is very large spread in
the track guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF taking the remnant
low northwestward, while most the other models show a westward or
west-southwestward track.  Since the majority of the guidance and
the TVCE consensus has shifted to the left, the NHC track at 72
hours and beyond has been adjusted southward, but it still remains
north of the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 23.4N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown




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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Aug-2014 08:38:59 UTC