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Tropical Depression FRANK Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 281440
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

Frank has only been devoid of organized deep convection since about
0400 UTC, so the system is still being maintained as a tropical
cyclone for this advisory.  However, if this downward convective
trend continues, which appears likely since Frank is now moving
over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures, then the cyclone will
become a remnant low pressure system this afternoon in the next
advisory package. Continued spin down should result in dissipation
of the low-level circulation by 72 hours.

Microwave satellite fixes indicate that Frank is now moving at
290/07 kt.  The weakening cyclone is forecast to become more
vertically shallow over the next 48 hours, which should result in a
turn toward the west and then west-southwest, accompanied by gradual
deceleration due to weak easterly tradewind flow. The official
forecast is similar to the previous track and lies close to the TVCN
consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 23.7N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 24.0N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1200Z 24.1N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Jul-2016 14:40:33 UTC