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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260848
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

After a decrease in thunderstorm activity yesterday, deep
convection associated with Frank has recently increased in a
CDO-type pattern.  The intensity of the storm is adjusted upward
slightly to 50 kt which is a blend of Dvorak T- and Current
Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Little change in strength is
expected in the short term since Frank will be over marginally warm
SSTs and in a weak shear environment today.  Within 12 to 24 hours,
however, a weakening trend is likely to commence and the cyclone
should become a tropical depression within a couple of days or
sooner.  The official intensity forecast is a little below the
latest model consensus.

Frank continues slowly west-northwestward or at about 285/6 kt.
The track forecast seems straightforward.  A mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the cyclone is predicted by the global models
to build slightly over the next few days.  This should result in
little change in heading but with some increase in forward speed
during the next 2-3 days.  The official track forecast is close to
the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 21.1N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 21.4N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 22.1N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 22.8N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 23.4N 122.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 24.3N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch