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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232036
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Convection continues to pulse near the center of Frank, with some
tilt of the circulation apparent on the latest satellite images.
Northeasterly shear has been a bit stronger than forecast, and
this has seemingly prevented any intensification of the cyclone.
Satellite estimates continue to support an initial wind speed of 55
kt.  With the models keeping the shear at moderate levels for the
next several days, it makes sense to no longer call for any
significant strengthening of the storm.  Weakening should begin on
Monday due to Frank encountering marginal water temperatures.  Model
guidance has come into better agreement on Frank no longer becoming
a hurricane, and the latest NHC intensity forecast is decreased from
the previous one, near the model consensus.  Remnant low status is
forecast at day 5 due to 23 deg C waters near the forecast path of
Frank and plentiful dry & stable air nearby.

Microwave and visible images show the storm is moving a bit slower
to the west-northwest, now at 6 kt.  Frank should move to the
west-northwest or west for the next several days beneath the
subtropical ridge.  Only small changes were made to the previous
forecast with a slight shift northward in the short term
and a westward nudge in the long term.  The new official forecast
is close to the dynamical model consensus, minus the GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 19.1N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 20.2N 112.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 20.6N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 20.8N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 20.9N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 21.8N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Jul-2016 20:37:14 UTC