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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 261458
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

After struggling during the last few days, Frank has become much
better organized overnight, with deeper and more symmetric
convection.  A SSM/IS pass from a couple of hours ago also indicated
the development of a vertically aligned eye feature. The 12z
satellite intensity estimates were 65 kt and 55 kt from TAFB and
SAB.  Since that time, the appearance of the cyclone has improved in
satellite imagery with the formation of a visible eye, so the
initial wind speed is set to 65 kt.

Frank has less than 24 hours before it moves over SSTs cooler than
26C.  Although it is not explicitly forecast, the hurricane could
become strengthen a little more sometime before weakening begins on
Wednesday due to much cooler waters.  Frank should lose all of its
convection and transition to a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days
when it encounters cold waters of 22-23C. The NHC forecast is raised
from the previous one, primarily due to the initial conditions, then
is blended with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus
IVCN.

The hurricane has finally started to move, estimated at 290/8 kt.
This general track is predicted for the next couple of days while
Frank is steered by a restrengthened subtropical ridge.  After 48
hours, Frank is expected to turn more westward when it becomes a
shallow remnant low.  Little change is made to the previous NHC
forecast, except for a small westward shift at long range near the
dynamical model consensus.

Frank is the 5th hurricane to form in the eastern Pacific during
July.  This is the most on record for July, eclipsing the previous
record of 4 previously set in 5 other years.  Reliable records in
the eastern Pacific for hurricanes begin in 1971.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 21.2N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 21.6N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 22.4N 119.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 23.1N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 23.8N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  29/1200Z 24.4N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake