| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260233
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

The areal coverage of the deep convection has been gradually
shrinking and only a small area of strong thunderstorms remains to
the northeast of the center.  Recent SSMIS data reveals that the
low-level structure is becoming less organized, but the mid-level
circulation is still quite distinct.  The cyclone has a vigorous
circulation, and based on continuity as well as the latest
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt.

The shear does not appear to be a problem for Frank, but a stable
environment and cooler waters along its path will likely result in
weakening. This will likely occur beyond 24 hours when the entire
circulation reaches cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the
guidance trend, primarily the SHIPS model, and calls for Frank to
degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days.

Initial motion is 285/06. Global models forecast that the ridge to
the north of Frank will remain steady for the next few days. This
pattern will continue to steer the cyclone on a general west-
northwest track with a slight increase in forward speed until
dissipation. There is basically no spread in the guidance from 12
through 72 hours, increasing significantly the confidence in
the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 20.8N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 21.1N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 22.3N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 23.0N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 24.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila



Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Jul-2016 02:33:47 UTC