Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 251437
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
900 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

Deep convection is bursting near the center of Frank, with its
asymmetric pattern on infrared images suggesting that shear
continues to play a significant role in the storm's structure.
Intensity estimates have a rather wide spread this morning, from 35
to 60 kt. Since the storm overall looks a little better than
overnight, the initial 55-kt wind speed is kept the same from
earlier, although it could still be generous.  Frank has about 24
hours left before it crosses the 26 deg C isotherm, which will
likely cause gradual weakening thereafter.  The storm still has a
chance of intensify during the first 24 h, but the official forecast
reflects no significant change in intensity, partially due to
uncertainty in the initial wind speed.  Frank is likely to become a
remnant low in about 3 days due to it moving over cool 23 deg C
waters.  The latest forecast is a bit lower than the previous one
and remains close to a SHIPS/LGEM consensus.

Microwave data show that Frank has started to move slowly westward,
with an initial motion estimate of 280/5.  All of the global models
predict the subtropical ridge to strengthen over the next couple of
days, which should steer the storm west-northwestward with some
acceleration.  Late in the forecast period, the shallow remnant low
is likely to move mostly westward in the low-level flow.  The model
spread has notably decreased since yesterday, with only some minor
speed differences.  Thus, no significant changes were made to the
previous track forecast, which lies close to the dynamical model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 20.4N 113.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 20.5N 114.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 20.9N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 22.3N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 23.8N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 24.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 24.7N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake