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Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221447
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

Polo has been absent of any organized deep convection for more than
12 hours.  Although a few sporadic showers have developed since 0900
UTC over the western half of the circulation, strong east-
southeasterly shear and unfavorable thermodynamic factors should
inhibit any significant return of deep convection.  Based on the
lack of deep convection for some time, the cyclone is being declared
a post-tropical remnant low on this advisory.  The initial wind
speed estimate presumes some spin-down of the vortex since late
yesterday and is lowered to 25 kt on this advisory.  Global models
shows Polo degenerating into an open trough by 48 hours, and so does
the official forecast.

Polo has been moving west-southwestward or 250/07.  The now-shallow
vortex is expected to turn southwestward or south-southwestward
on the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge over the subtropical
eastern Pacific prior to dissipation.  The track forecast is left
of much of the guidance, including the multi-model consensus, given
the already greater southerly component of motion.

For additional information on the remnant low of Polo please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 22.2N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Sep-2014 14:47:35 UTC