Post-Tropical Cyclone TWELVE-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 130236
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM NOW LACKS
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. 
SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS QUITE WEAK AND THE INTENSITY
IS SET GENEROUSLY TO 25 KT.  WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS...THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING
ABOUT 040/3.  A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...A BROAD 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.6N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 16.8N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH