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Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020232
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 01 2016

ASCAT data from earlier today indicated that the low pressure area
several hundred miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula had
developed a well-defined circulation.  Deep convection, although
currently sheared to the west of the low-level center, has become
more organized throughout the day, and TAFB and SAB have both given
the system classifications of T1.5.  Advisories are being initiated
on a new tropical depression, with the 25-kt initial intensity based
on the Dvorak estimates and ASCAT data.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the
south of the subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected to remain
relatively stationary, with the cyclone forecast to continue
west-northwestward for the next couple of days.  There are some
speed differences, however, with the ECMWF showing a slightly faster
motion compared with the other track models.  The NHC official
forecast is a little faster than the consensus model trackers, which
did not include the ECMWF solution on this forecast cycle.  After 48
hours, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn westward and then
west-southwestward by day 5.

The depression only has a small window of opportunity to strengthen.
Vertical shear is forecast to be low during the next 36 hours and
then increase significantly in 2 to 3 days.  In addition, the
cyclone should move over water colder than 26 degrees Celsius and
into a much drier mid-level environment in about 36 hours.
Therefore, only modest strengthening to tropical storm strength is
shown in the NHC official forecast in the first day or two, followed
by weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by day 3.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 14.7N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 15.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 15.8N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 16.5N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 17.1N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 17.7N 128.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 17.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


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