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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 290853
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Shortly after Bonnie reached its peak intensity of 40 kt, water
vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds indicate that a surge of
40-60 kt upper-level winds passed over the center of the cyclone,
which stripped away all of the associated deep convection. In
addition, an intrusion of dry air has inhibited the redevelopment
of significant deep convection near the center. Based on the erosion
of the convective pattern, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt
for this advisory.

Radar and satellite imagery suggest that Bonnie is now moving due
north or 360/07 kt. Bonnie has become a more shallow tropical
cyclone due to the loss of all deep convection, and the system is
expected to be steered generally northward around the western
periphery of a low-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so. This
should bring the center of Bonnie near or just inland of the South
Carolina coast this afternoon or tonight. After that, Bonnie is
expected to move slowly northeastward around the northern side of
the Bermuda-Azores High and emerge out over the Atlantic by 36 to
48 hours, and continue moving northeastward or east-northeastward
through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely
follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks.

Continued strong southerly vertical wind shear, along with dry air
in the mid- and upper-levels and proximity to land, should prevent
any significant restrengthening from occurring. However, there
could be intermittent bursts of convection near the center of
Bonnie, keeping the cyclone as a tropical storm until landfall
occurs later today. By 48 hours and beyond, environmental
conditions worsen, and Bonnie is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low pressure system by 72 hours, if not sooner.

The primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which
is already occurring over much of South Carolina, eastern Georgia,
and portions of southeastern North Carolina. These rains will
gradually spread northeastward along the mid-Atlantic region over
the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 32.1N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 32.6N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 33.3N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z 33.5N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  31/0600Z 33.9N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 34.5N  76.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z 35.2N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0600Z 35.8N  74.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart