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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 280836
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The depression has not become any better organized since yesterday.
The convection is located to the northwest of the low-level center
due to southeasterly shear, and it is also limited due to the fact
that the cyclone has been moving over cooler waters. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 30
kt based on continuity. The depression has a small opportunity to
strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it moves over the
warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, although the shear is not
favorable for intensification. This is consistent with most of the
intensity guidance, which do not show any notable increase of the
winds. In between 24 and 36 hours, the circulation will be
interacting with land, and weakening should begin. By 72 hours or
sooner, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low.

Although the low-level center is difficult to locate on satellite
imagery, the best estimate of the initial motion is 310 degrees at
12 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge
of a mid-level ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer the
cyclone on the same track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a
short wave trough is forecast to approach from the west and force
the cyclone to turn to the east-northeast at a very slow pace. The
NHC forecast is an extrapolation of the previous one, and it
follows the trend of the GFS and the ECMWF models very closely. The
NHC forecast brings the center of the cyclone near the South
Carolina coast between 24 and 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 29.9N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 31.0N  78.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 32.4N  79.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 32.8N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0600Z 33.0N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0600Z 33.5N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z 35.0N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-May-2016 08:36:36 UTC