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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 150854
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has
strengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight.  A dropsonde
released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at
0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the
corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a
major hurricane.  This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the
UW-CIMSS ADT.  On the other hand, low-level wind data from the
dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an
intensity estimate between 75-80 kt.  As a compromise between the
data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.

Environmental conditions should support some additional
intensification during the next couple of days.  Modest
southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but
the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours.  In addition, the
hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3
days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching
major hurricane status between 24-48 hours.  After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening
trend is expected by day 3.  Edouard is forecast to be over 22C
water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose
its deep convection and become post-tropical.  At this point, it
appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones
over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the
forecast period.

The initial motion remains 305/13 kt.  Edouard is expected to turn
northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and
then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various
models.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model
consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 26.9N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 27.9N  55.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 29.6N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 31.6N  57.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 34.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 39.1N  48.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 41.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg




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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Sep-2014 08:55:23 UTC