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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 170243
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

A 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric
rings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane
force winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft.  Therefore, the 64-
kt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the
southeast and southwest quadrants.  Additionally, an earlier lower
fuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest
reflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial
intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise
of the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak
flight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the
cyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and
within increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous package and closely resembles
the IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical
characteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or
less, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear.
Through the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all
agree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive
mid-latitude baroclinic zone.

The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward,
or 035/15.  Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to
east-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the
mid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a
mid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion
is expected with further acceleration.  A rather abrupt reduction in
forward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as
Edouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low
situated to the west of the Iberian peninsula.  The official NHC
forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast
track at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model
consensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
(HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)
project 133 member multi-model ensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 33.5N  56.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 38.4N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 40.2N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 40.5N  40.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 40.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0000Z 38.5N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0000Z 35.5N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 02:43:23 UTC