Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT41 KNHC 180849
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small,
solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep
convection.  The infrared satellite presentation has not changed
appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at
75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT.  Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some
atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its
convective structure.  However, the SHIPS guidance shows the
instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over
30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a
faster weakening trend later today.  The hostile conditions should
cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours,
and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a
post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5.  The NHC
forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus.

The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has
an initial motion of 065/24 kt.  Edouard is moving around the
northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central
Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward
around this feature during the next 3 days.  Most of the track
models are in good agreement on this scenario.  The two main
outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after
12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race
northeastward ahead of a cold front.  The updated NHC track forecast
is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a
little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 39.6N  45.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 40.1N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 39.9N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/0600Z 35.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg




Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 08:49:57 UTC