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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 160240
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Edouard has not strengthened further.  While the eye has become
somewhat better defined and warmer since the last advisory, deep
convection in the central dense overcast is not quite as cold.  The
intensification phase that the cyclone was experiencing earlier may
have been interrupted by 15-20 kt of southeasterly shear as analyzed
by the SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS analyses.  Dvorak intensity
estimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while
UW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt.  A blend of these data is
used to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt.

Edouard still has another 24-36 hours to intensify.  Moderately
strong southeasterly shear, resulting from the flow between
a low to the southwest and a high to the east at upper levels, is
forecast to decrease as Edouard nears its point of recurvature.
Near and immediately after that time, the shear and motion vectors
should align, which tends to favor more symmetric convection.  These
favorable factors, despite gradually cooler waters beneath the
cyclone, should allow Edouard to reach major hurricane status.
Drastically cooler waters and a substantial increase in
southwesterly shear beyond 48 hours suggest that a rapid decay of
the cyclone should occur by that time.  Interaction with a
baroclinic zone in 2-3 days should cause the beginning of
extratropical transition, but this process is expected to become
interrupted when the cyclone shears apart and outruns this weather
system.  Edouard is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in 96
hours, if not slightly sooner, and gradually spin down over the
northeastern Atlantic.  The NHC wind speed forecast is the same as
the previous one through 48 hours and is above all of the intensity
guidance. The forecast is lowered relative to the last advisory
after that time and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN.

Edouard has recently turned north-northwestward and the initial
motion estimate is now 335/11.  The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement through 72 hours.  The cyclone is expected to
turn northward in 12-18 hours when it rounds the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge.  An acceleration toward the northeast, and
then east-northeast, is expected beyond 24 hours as Edouard is
captured by a relatively fast-paced westerly flow over the north
Atlantic.  Near the end of the forecast period, the increasingly
shallow vortex should turn eastward and southeastward within the
flow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast
Atlantic.  The track guidance has shifted noticeably to the left on
this cycle.  However, to maintain continuity, the new NHC track
forecast is only nudged to the left of the previous one, and lies on
the far right side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 29.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 35.5N  54.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 38.1N  50.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 40.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/0000Z 38.6N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 02:40:55 UTC