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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 070832

500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015

The organization of Joaquin continues to slowly decrease, with the
central convection now present only in the northeastern semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 65 kt, and
that is the advisory intensity.

Joaquin is now moving over colder water north of the Gulf Stream,
and the cyclone is gradually becoming embedded in a baroclinic zone.
This combination should cause continued weakening and eventual
extratropical transition.  The current expectation is that the
central convection will dissipate before the cyclone develops
fronts, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become
post-tropical for about 12 hours before becoming extratropical.
The new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening than
the previous forecast, and calls for Joaquin or its remnants to
dissipate by 120 hours.

Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is
embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge.
This motion should continued for another 36 hours or so.  After
that time, the guidance is now in better agreement that the cyclone
should turn decelerate and turn east-southeastward as it comes under
the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe.
The new forecast track is an update of the previous track.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 24 hours and
beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction


INIT  07/0900Z 40.5N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 41.4N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 42.4N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/1800Z 43.3N  28.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0600Z 44.2N  23.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0600Z 44.0N  16.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0600Z 43.0N  12.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Oct-2015 08:33:22 UTC