Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 070832
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015
The organization of Joaquin continues to slowly decrease, with the
central convection now present only in the northeastern semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 65 kt, and
that is the advisory intensity.
Joaquin is now moving over colder water north of the Gulf Stream,
and the cyclone is gradually becoming embedded in a baroclinic zone.
This combination should cause continued weakening and eventual
extratropical transition. The current expectation is that the
central convection will dissipate before the cyclone develops
fronts, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become
post-tropical for about 12 hours before becoming extratropical.
The new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening than
the previous forecast, and calls for Joaquin or its remnants to
dissipate by 120 hours.
Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is
embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge.
This motion should continued for another 36 hours or so. After
that time, the guidance is now in better agreement that the cyclone
should turn decelerate and turn east-southeastward as it comes under
the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe.
The new forecast track is an update of the previous track.
The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 24 hours and
beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 40.5N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 42.4N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/1800Z 43.3N 28.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z 44.2N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 44.0N 16.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 43.0N 12.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP