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Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Forecast Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 051500

1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data
indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC
this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind
observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the
initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone
should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are
expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours.  The cyclone is
now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt.  A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward
speed is expected during the next day or so.  A turn toward the
north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few
days.  The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward
thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur.  For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre at:

Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by
the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in
French at WOCN41 CWHX.  For marine interests, additional
information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.


INIT  05/1500Z 45.0N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 47.0N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  06/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/0000Z 52.0N  56.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/1200Z 56.0N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  08/1200Z 60.5N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1200Z 60.5N  52.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown/Pasch

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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Jul-2014 15:01:12 UTC