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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 010240
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

Fred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what
thunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance.
Although the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the
diurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the
cloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical
storm.  The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60
kt.  As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the environment
ahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear,
progressively drier mid-level air and increased stability.  The
official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM
guidance.  Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile
future environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated
here.

The center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the
initial motion is 310/10 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of
Fred is forecast to build gradually westward.  This should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest.  A more westward
track with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower
cyclone steered more by the low-level flow.  The official forecast
remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly
a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.  This is also very
similar to the previous NHC track forecast.

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 17.9N  25.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.6N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 19.6N  28.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 20.5N  29.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 21.1N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 22.2N  34.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 23.5N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 25.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 02:41:08 UTC