Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 010232
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014               
0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  19(37)   1(38)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  18(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Nov-2014 02:32:59 UTC