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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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000
FOPZ11 KNHC 301446
PWSEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014               
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)

L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  15(32)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)   9(38)   1(39)
CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Oct-2014 14:46:19 UTC