000
AXNT20 KNHC 091007
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ 
continues from that point to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across
central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing 
gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf E of 87W and fresh SE winds 
over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to 
6 ft west of 88W. No significant convection is occurring in the 
basin, but haze due to agricultural fires in SE Mexico continues 
to restrict visibility across the western Gulf. In addition,
patchy fog is occurring where sea surface temperatures are lowest,
in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds will prevail across much of the 
Gulf through tonight ahead of a cold front. The cold front will 
move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Fri and will move
across most of the basin into Sat. The front will slow down and 
weaken further, then extend from South Florida to the bay of 
Campeche by late Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will 
follow the front into. Haze due to agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico persists in the western Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western 
Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean. 
The upper trough will continue to move farther northeast of the 
area through tonight, with atmospheric conditions stabilizing in 
its wake. Abundant tropical moisture remains prevalent just east 
of the NE Caribbean. Persistent daily rainfall across the Greater 
Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for the past several days has 
left soils at or near saturation, and river levels high across 
this region. Please see local weather advisories for specific 
information on hazardous local conditions.

The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and
extends its ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern is 
producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central and SE
Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds 
prevail across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas have built to 4 
to 6 ft. The remainder of the basin is under gentle to moderate 
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and SE 
Caribbean through the weekend, with some increasing winds possible
early next week. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh to locally 
strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras into the start
of next week due to the pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

 A pair of troughs are located along 58W and 65W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted along the trough near 58W, with 
moderate to locally fresh winds noted east of the trough between 
53W-58W. To the west, mainly gentle southerly flow prevails, but 
moderate to fresh SW winds have developed N and W of a line from 
South Florida to Bermuda. The trough in the far eastern Atlantic
has dissipated, and this part of the basin is now dominated by an
Azores high, with mainly gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft. S o 20 N, moderate to locally fresh trades dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, for most of the basin, winds will 
diminish today as the high pressure shifts E. However, as a cold 
front approaches the US East Coast, fresh to strong winds will 
develop off northeast Florida, then prevail through Fri night. The
front will move across Florida Sat, bringing moderate to fresh 
winds behind it. The front will weaken Sun as it moves east of 
65W. 

$$
Konarik