000 AXNT20 KNHC 241153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 9N12W 7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 3N TO 11N. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS GUIDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH AT 850 MB TO BE ON A LINE FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE FRONT TO HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BY THANKSGIVING EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS NOW TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND THE GULF COASTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN INVERTED 850 MB TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS STRETCH FROM THE WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF GULF OF URABA TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 84W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N69W TO 16N71W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...CLOSE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 24N75W 20N74W. THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS AND NOW ARE FROM 23N TO 27N WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N50W BEYOND 32N48W. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N42W 25N46W 16N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N43W TO 27N48W AND 23N55W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N50W AND BEYOND 31N57W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 34W...WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. $$ MT
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Nov-2009 11:52:29 GMT