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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291035
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is off the W coast of Africa with axis extending from 
14N19W to 04N19W, moving W at 10 kt. The 700 mb analysis shows a 
good wave reflection. Although the wave is in a favorable wind 
shear environment, the CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture 
with large patches of dry air, that presently hinders convection. 

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending 
from 11N32W to 00N34W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows 
a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ with dry air in the 
Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave 
reflection. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 16N55W to 05N55W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery 
shows a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ, with dry air in 
the Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good 
wave reflection. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
05N-10N between 53W-57W.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis extending 
from 21N66W to 09N67W, moving W at 15 kt. Saharan dry air is 
present in the wave's environment inhibiting convection. There is 
a very pronounced 700 mb wave reflection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 
07N21W to 06N28W to 03N33W...then resumes W of a tropical wave 
near 03N35W and continues to the coast of South America near 06S44W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 25W-
31W, and from 01N-03N between 39W-41W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low is centered over central Texas near 30N98W with an 
associated stationary front. Radar imagery shows scattered 
moderate to strong convection over central and south Texas, 
Louisiana, and the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 26N and W of 91W. 
Outside of convection, 1-3 nm of fog is also being reported over 
portions of the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, a 1017 mb high is located over
N Florida near 29N83W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE
Gulf. 10-20 kt SE surface winds are over the W Gulf. Scattered 
showers are over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico S of 23N. In 
the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. 
Upper level moisture is over most of the Gulf, except over S 
Florida and the SE Gulf where strong subsidence is noted. Expect 
convection to persist over the NW Gulf for the next 24 hours. Also
expect showers to persist over the Bay of Campeche over the next
24 hours. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. The monsoon 
trough extends over Costa Rica and Panama producing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean S of
12N. Further N, scattered showers are inland over, Guatemala, and
the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W
Caribbean. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean with 
strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical 
wave to move W with showers. Also expect more convection over the
SW Caribbean, and Central America. 

HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the Island, 
hindering convection. However, patches of low level moisture, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, will produce isolated showers 
over the next 24 hours. In addition, the tropical wave will 
influence E Hispaniola within 24 hours. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 
32N37W. Light showers are over the Canary Islands. Three tropical
waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the 
Tropical Waves section for more details. Saharan dry and dust is 
noted across much of the Atlantic Ocean N of 10N and E of 50W. Of 
note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is centered N of 
the Leeward Islands producing upper level diffluence with 
scattered showers from 20N-24N between 55W-65W. Expect over the 
next 24 hours for more showers to be over the Atlantic in the 
vicinity of the Leeward and Windward Islands.

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa