000
AXNT20 KNHC 281623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: The GALE WARNING for coastal 
waters off of SE Florida has expired. Gusty winds have diminished 
below gale force since earlier this morning. Seas are less than 8 
ft. For more information, please see local products at 
www.weather.gov/mfl and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to 04N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the ITCZ and
Monsoon Trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong ridge off New England is forcing fresh to strong SE winds
over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 8-10 ft across the Gulf
north of 22N. In remaining waters, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will start to weaken 
on Mon, loosening the pressure gradient which will diminish winds 
and decrease seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to
fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and south- 
central Gulf each evening through the forecast period. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The aforementioned strong ridge in the NW Atlantic is also
sustaining fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the lee of
Cuba, Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.
Seas in these waters are 7-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring 
in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5-7
ft are noted in the south-central Caribbean Sea and remaining 
waters in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will 
gradually weaken over the next few days. As a result, the fresh to
occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of 
Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola will diminish 
early this week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly 
winds will prevail. Northerly swell will bring seas of 8 ft 
through the passages in the NE Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 22N67W, then becoming a shear
line to western Hispaniola. A reinforcing cold front, in the
process of merging with the primary front, is from 31N50W to
25N68W. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8-12 ft are found 
over much of the SW North Atlantic behind the primary frontal 
boundary. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are 
occurring north of 27N east of the front to 42W. A couple of weak
surface troughs are analyzed east of the Leeward Islands. Seas are
4-7 ft in open waters, with gentle to moderate winds.

For the forecast, the cold front will move E before stalling and 
weakening over the far southeastern waters late today through Mon 
night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will prevail N of 28N behind the
front to 65W with seas to 12 ft today. Also, fresh to strong 
winds will be prevalent over the waters S of 25N and W of the 
front today. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere into 
early this week. More tranquil marine conditions are expected 
afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters. 

$$
Mahoney