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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280506
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending 
from 10N28W to 01N29W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows a
moderate moist environment near the ITCZ with dry air in the 
Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave 
reflection. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 
25W-29W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of 
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 11N45W to 01N45W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery
shows a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ, with dry air in
the Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good 
wave reflection. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave 
axis.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from 
16N54W to 06N56W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave shows a well defined 
inverted-V surface reflection on satellite imagery. CIRA LPW 
imagery shows a moist environment. The 700 mb analysis shows a 
good wave reflection. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the 
wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis extending 
from 19N67W to 10N68W, moving W at 10 kt. Saharan dry air is 
present in the wave's environment inhibiting convection. There 
is a very pronounced 700 mb wave reflection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 11N15W and 
continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 05N27W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N32W and continues to 06N43W.
The ITCZ again resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N47W and
continues to the coast of South America near 05N54W. Besides the 
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is along the coast of West Africa
from 05N-10N between 11W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-06N between 30W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is located over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N84W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf. 10-20 kt SE 
surface winds are over the W Gulf. Scattered moderate convection 
is over S Texas and within 60 nm of the S Texas coast. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over S Mexico and over
the southern 60 nm of the Bay of Campeche. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is 
over most of the Gulf. Upper level moisture is ,however, over S 
Texas, and the Bay of Campeche. Expect more showers and convection  
to advect into the Bay of Campeche from S Mexico, over the next 
24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. The monsoon 
trough extends over Costa Rica and Panama producing scattered 
showers. Further N, Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is inland over Nicaragua, Honduras,and Guatemala. In 
the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean. An upper level 
trough is over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with showers. 
Also expect continued convection over the SW Caribbean, and 
Central America. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the Island, 
hindering convection. However, patches of low level moisture, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, will produce isolated showers 
over the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front in the W Atlantic from 31N60W to the central Bahamas
near 24N75W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front N of
26N. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 
29N46W. Three tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. 
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. 
Saharan dry and dust is noted across much of the Atlantic Ocean 
N of 10N and E of 50W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper
level low is centered near 26N56W producing upper level 
diffluence with scattered showers from 25N-32N between 47W-52W. 
Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic front to drift E,
while a new cold front will dip into the E Atlantic along 31N 
between 17W-27W with showers.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa