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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 291801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 1018 MB HIGH IN
W CENTRAL GULF TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SINKING S INTO GULF COASTAL PLAINS WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH SINKING
S AROUND 28N THIS AFTERNOON WITH WLY FLOW TO 15 KT AND KICKING UP
SEAS 4-5 FT IN BIG BEND BASIN. ANOMALOUS JULY MID-UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS ERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEYOND WED. CURRENT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU AFTER PUSHING THROUGH THE NE GULF. W
TO NW FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS BIG BEND REGION WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LATE EVENING PULSE OF NE WINDS
15-20 KT OFF W AND NW COAST OF YUCATAN DAILY. MODELS IN GENERALLY
AGREEMENT ON FEATURES. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED
WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE ATLC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE SE U.S.
COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM NUDGES ATLC HIGH NNE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SINK S THROUGH THE NE GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING THU.
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN FRESH AND PEAK AROUND 25 KT AT NIGHT THU
AND FRI NIGHTS. INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN TO
FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 40W THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND
CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST AGREED ON WITH NHC/WPC COORDINATION. STILL
EARLY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REALIGN SW TO NE THROUGH DAY 3 AS
SE U.S. COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM NUDGES THE ATLC HIGH NE...WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...SW FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF
28-29N W OF 73W AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT THROUGH WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE WITHIN 240 NM SE
OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NW WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED...THEN RETROGRADE WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI BACK ACROSS NW WATERS AND ACROSS FLORIDA AS A LOW
ALONG THE FRONT LIFTS N FROM NE FL AND OUT OF REGION. MODERATE
E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS AOB 4
FT THROUGH THU. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL LOW ALONG 40W THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEXT 24-48
HOURS...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND CMC
ARE THE ONLY GLOBAL MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE FORECAST
AGREED ON DURING NHC/WPC COORDINATION WAS CLOSEST TO THE GFS
FORECAST...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS HERE AS WELL AS
DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WHEN THERE ARE NO NOTABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND WINDS/SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER/STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 29-Jul-2014 18:02:15 UTC