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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 271657
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MINOR MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FIRST 12 HOURS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN   
PENINSULA WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. 
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION PRECEDES THE FRONT AND IS DENOTED IN THE 
WEATHER GRIDS. THE POST-FRONTAL GALE WARNING VERIFIED BY OBS 
FROM SACV4 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL ABRUPTLY 
END THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING TONIGHT WITH N-NE 
WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE GULF WATERS AT SUNRISE ON 
SAT. EXPECT NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 26N ON 
SUN...EXCEPT NE-E 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE APPROACH TO 
THE YUCATAN PASSAGE. THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 20-25 KT NE FLOW 
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RESUME AGAIN ON 
SUN EVENING.

A POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT ENE OVER THE NW GULF 
WATERS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ENE PASSING ACROSS THE FL 
PANHANDLE ON SAT NIGHT...LEAVING A RIDGE SW TO NE MEXICO. THE 
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON SUN WITH THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA BAY 
ON MON. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN SHIFT W AND MEANDER OVER THE 
NE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO LA. 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW GULF 
WATERS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH 
CONFIDENCE.

SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH 
THIS AFTERNOON TO 5-10 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 
THE YUCATAN PASSAGE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A 
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN..AND NOW EXPECT THIS FRONT TO REACH FROM THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO THE E GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT EVENING...THEN LOSE 
IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE NICARAGUA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. 
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND 
FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SUN EVENING. STILL EXPECT A 
SWATCH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 
JAMAICA ON MON MORNING...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX.   

FURTHER TO THE S EXPECT THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGING N OF THE   
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...TO SUPPORT 
STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND WITH THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXING A LITTLE EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO THE FL STRAITS AT SUNRISE THIS 
MORNING WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING  
STRONG COLD FRONT. FRESH EASTERLIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S 
OF THE RIDGE. S-SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 30N WITH 
SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE. THIS 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT THIS EVENING N OF 27N 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING. NW FLOW WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT 
THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT 
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON SAT EVENING...FROM 31N60W 
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN MORNING...FROM 31N58W TO 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN EVENING...THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE FROM 25N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON MON EVENING THROUGH 
AT LEAST EARLY WED. A W TO E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 27N IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MON...THEN SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N ON TUE. 
EXPECT A SW-W 15-25 KT WIND SHIFT TO DEVELOP N OF 29N ON MON 
NIGHT ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 
THE RIDGE FROM MON NIGHT TO WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 
31N56W TO 29N65W...THEN STALL ALONG 27N TO THE FL COAST ON TUE. 
AN E-W RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG 29N N OF THE FRONTAL REMNANTS MID 
WEEK. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Mar-2015 16:57:58 UTC