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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 300716
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
316 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NEAR 23.9N 85.5W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC
AUG 30 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS AN
EXPOSED CENTER BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 24.2N 86.4W LATER THIS MORNING. THE TS WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
24.9N 87.1W TONIGHT...NEAR 25.8N 87.0W WED MORNING...THEN BEGIN
TO TURN N AND NE AND INTENSIFY TO 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT AS IT REACHES
NEAR 27.2N 85.8W WED NIGHT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
WILL SPREAD FROM THE SE GULF N AND NW INTO THE E GULF THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NE AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THE PRESENT AREA OF STRONG
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...
EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION.

A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING...
MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF THEN ACCELERATE NE ACROSS
NORTHERN FL LATE THU INTO FRI. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP
OVER THE NW WATERS EAST OF NE FLORIDA THU THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THOSE WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS
BUILDING TO 10-11 FT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE EXPECTED T.S. IS EXPECTED FORECAST TO TRACK NE ACROSS ZONE
AMZ111 LATE THU THROUGH FRI. STRONG SW WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115 FRI AND SAT NIGHT WHILE SHRINKING
IN COVERAGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN ZONE AMZ111 FRI NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. 
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED NIGHT. 
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED. 
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.