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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 251844
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
144 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE
USUAL AREA OFF VERACRUZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. GALES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF...NEAR A 1012 MB LOW THAT HAS
FORMED NEAR 27N87W. AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPECT POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE N
CENTRAL AND NE GULF...PRODUCING OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTS.

WHILE THERE REMAINS HIGH CERTAINTY AMONG MAJOR MODELS THAT
THERE WILL BE GALES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE GALES HOWEVER AS THE
LATEST GFS...GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN
EARLIER AND DO NOT SHOW GALES REACHING OFFSHORE ZONE GMZ112 IN THE
SE GULF TONIGHT AS EARLIER DEPICTED. THE SREF IS ALSO NOT
INDICATING GALES IN THIS ZONE...BUT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER FORECASTS AND INCLUDES A SMALL AREA OF
GALES IN THE NW PORTION OF THIS ZONE. THE RATIONALE IS THAT THE
LOOP CURRENT REACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE
OFFERING EFFICIENT MIXING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE
SURFACE.

HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND WED AHEAD
OF REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.THE
REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES
THROUGH EARLY THU...POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE FAR NE GULF. STRONGER
HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...MAINTAINING STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND SE GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS IN THESE
AREAS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES E TO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING FRESH SE RETURN OVER THE TEXAS COAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE
BAHAMAS...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS
ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND
LIKELY BUILDING 11-12 FT OFF COLOMBIA. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

A STRONG ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS BASIN E OF 80W AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE A GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE W PORTION OF
RIDGE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING S
THROUGH THE CHANNEL AND OFFSHORE OF BELIZE. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL
CUBA TO CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS BY 00Z THU...AND FINALLY STALLING
FROM E CENTRAL CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT. AS
SECONDARY FRONT DROPS INTO N GULF EARLY THU...PRES GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT AND INCREASE
WINDS 25-30 KT FROM OFFSHORE OF BELIZE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUING SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND SE OF GFS.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ATLC RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO FAR SE BAHAMAS.
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND
AID IN PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND A LONG FETCH OF NE
WINDS 20-25 KT INTO WATERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE RIDGE
WEAKENS THROUGH THU.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF NE FL COAST LATER TODAY AND
MEANDER THERE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG
FRONT RACES NE ACROSS N HALF OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING AND DEEPENS ACROSS W ATLC WED. MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH
AS EARLIER SHOWING GALES OFF N OF 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE GULF STREAM
REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG SUSTAINED GALES OR AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL CATCH UP TO THE INITIAL MEANDERING FRONT
WED AND BEGIN TO PUSH IT SE...REACHING 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA
ALONG 80W BY 00Z THU AND EVENTUALLY STALLING AND BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE FROM 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING. NW WINDS
MAINLY 20-25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT W OF 75W WED. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK WITH NE TO E TRADES
FRESHENING S OF 25-26N SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E
INTO W ATLC.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W
 GALE WARNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 25-Nov-2014 18:44:41 UTC