Marine Weather Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 111744
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL CUBA TO 26N90W 
AND IS RETRACTING SE AS A COLD FRONT FROM S LA TO SE TX 
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. A FEW REPORTS OF 20 KT THIS MORNING IN 
CENTRAL WATERS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AM PACKAGE. N-NE WINDS 
NW OF FRONT AT 20 KT AND GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON POSSIBILITY 
20-25 KT. SEEMS LIKE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NORMAL PSN FROM 
SW FL TO CENTRAL GULF THEN S TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. NOT AS MUCH 
EVIDENCE OF AN ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOUNDARY MOVING BACK N AS 
WARM FRONT SO DOWNPLAYED IN TEXT PRODUCT AND DROPPED MENTION OF 
FRONT ALL TOGETHER AFTER WED. SE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE 
NW WATERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TO 20 KT LATE TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE 
ON NEXT FRONT SUGGESTS WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING OFF TX MIDNIGHT WED 
NIGHT BUT A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE E GULF WILL STALL THE FRONT 
FROM MS DELTA TO NE MEXICO.

SW N ATLC...A RIDGE LIES E-W ALONG 22N-23N AS EXPECTED. SW WINDS 
20-25 KT WELL N OF RIDGE. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS 
AROUND SUNSET TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS TO 30 KT EITHER SID OF 
FRONT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE NE WATERS 
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS W OF FRONT WILL CLOCK TO SE MIDDAY 
WED OVER THE NW WATERS AS REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DRIFT SE OVER 
THE EXTREME SE WATERS. NWW3 DISSIPATES THE N SWELL TO ABOUT 7 FT 
AS IT ARRIVES N COAST PUERTO RICO FRI.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST 
ACROSS THE AREA S OF 17N AND W GULF OF HONDURAS. WILL CONTINUE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TRADES THIS 
WEEK. EXPECTING REMNANTS OF FRONT TO DRIFT IN NW TROPICAL ATLC 
ZONE SUNRISE THU WITH 8 FT MAX N SWELL ARRIVING THU NIGHT AND 
FRI THEN DISSIPATING TO 7 FT OR LESS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 47W S OF 10N AND HAS BEEN MOVING AT 13 KT PAST 72 
HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING WAVE AXIS W TO ALONG 55W MIDDAY MON AND 
INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE TUE REACHING NEAR 78W LATE FRI. MOST OF 
WIND SHIFT IS S OF 11N SO ONLY EXTREME S CARIBBEAN WATERS MAY 
SEE EFFECTS. 

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.