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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 271836
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
236 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH LATEST FORECAST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY
SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA...NOW MOVING W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE A TURN
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
STARTING SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY FOR SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FAR NE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED SQUALLS...THE
MAIN MARINE IMPACTS OF WINDS AND SEAS ARE OVER ATLC WATERS WITHIN
270 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
ERIKA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AND PASS OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
CURRENTLY. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA BY
LATE FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA. THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE FOLLOWING ERIKA MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC
WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN TRADES
SUN THROUGH TUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF OVERNIGHT PULSES OFF WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LONG A PERSISTENT TROUGH REACHING FROM
31N76W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. FARTHER TO THE SE...A 14 UTC
ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ON THE NORTH END OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING OVER ATLC WATERS N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS THE CENTER OF ERIKA MOVE ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY INTO A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH LATE
FRI AS IT CONTINUES WNW MAINLY N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS...THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ERIKA REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND STARTS TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NW BAHAMAS THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. 

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Aug-2015 18:36:22 UTC