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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 310755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TUE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W. THE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TODAY...REACHING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF BY LATE TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND SAT WILL REINFORCE THE FIRST
FRONT. THE MERGED FRONTS WILL SWEEP THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND STRAITS
OF FLORIDA THROUGH LATE SAT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT
MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE AT
TIMES...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE STARTING EARLY
SAT. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOTED. LATEST NWPS AND
MM3 OUTPUT INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NE GULF BY SAT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND FRESH SE
RETURN FLOW OFF TEXAS THROUGH MON. FOR TUE...THE ECMWF REMAINS
WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET WHICH SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND OFF TEXAS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN ROUGHLY JAMAICA AND PANAMA IS MOVING INTO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE SEEM TO BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 FT EVERYWHERE CURRENTLY. SEAS
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THEN W OF
THE AREA SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE
FRI. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON WHERE ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL SLOW. A
SECOND FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE
SAT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL CATCH UP WILL THE INITIAL SLOWED FRONT
EARLY SUN AND THE MERGED FRONTS WILL SHIFT E AND STALL FROM E CUBA
TO HONDURAS BY EARLY MON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG NE BREEZES
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE BEHIND THE MERGED
FRONT...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT
LEAST 8 FT OVER EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. A PAIR
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 27N73W AND N OF THE
LEEWARDS NEAR 21N64W. THE WEAK FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION TODAY
AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE. A STRONGER FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WILL OVERTAKE AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST
FRONT TONIGHT. THE MERGED FRONTS WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO NW CUBA
BY LATE SAT. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA...ALLOWING WINDS TO GALE FORCE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE OVER THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W FROM SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 19 FT IN
THIS AREA AS WELL. SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL
ENVELOP THE ATLC WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS LATE SAT THROUGH LATE
MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 27N BY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE WATERS BETWEEN NE
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING POSITION TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS PATTERN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. 
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. 

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Oct-2014 07:56:12 UTC