Marine Weather Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 100647
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
CDFNT OVER THE EXTREME SE FL STRAITS ATTM. POST FRONTAL NLY FLOW 
HAS DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 25 KT AS EXPECTED. THE FRONT LEFT 
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVER THE SW GULF. AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE 
SHIFTS E A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN AS IT EXPANDS N TO 
OVER THE SE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE AVERAGE OF GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR 27N97W THU AND MOVES THE LOW 
E ACROSS CENTRAL FL FRI NIGHT AND SAT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH 
AND PSN OF LOW AND IS ACTUAL TRACK IT WILL TRAIL A COOL FRONT TO 
ITS S. SLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AT LEAST 25 KT AHEAD 
OF LOW AND ITS TRAILING FRONT AND NLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL 
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT....WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTING MINIMAL GALE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY 
BECOMING SLY OVER THE NW GULF SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS NW 
GULF MIDDAY SUN REACHING THE E GULF WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT.

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
FAIRLY NARROW FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 21.5N 
BETWEEN 55W AND 68W WILL BEGIN TO N MOVE NE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO 
COLD FRONT ALONG 31N75W TO 26N80W ATTM. WINDS EXPECTED TO 
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE N OF 29N EITHER SIDE OF FRONT 
SPREADING S TO ALONG 28N LATER. THE FRONT WILL RACE E TO PSN 
FROM BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA AROUND SUNSET TODAY FINALLY LOSING 
ITS SE PUSH FROM 20N55W TO HISPANIOLA FRI. GALE CONDITIONS WILL 
SHIFT E OF 65W THU NIGHT AND E OF 55W EARLY FRI. NLY WINDS IN 
WAKE OF FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NW WATERS FRI THEN 
RAPIDLY INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AS GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES 
MOVES E ACROSS FL AND ACCELERATES NE PASSING TO THE S OF BERMUDA 
SAT NIGHT. MODELS STILL VARY ON STRENGTH,TRACK AND TIMING OF 
THIS LOW SO EXPECT MANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER PACKAGES. 
IN ANY EVENT MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG SHIFTING WINDS OVER 
WATERS W OF 75W AS EARLY AS FRI NIGHT SPREADING E OF 75W SAT. 
NLY WINDS AS SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE W EARLY SUN WITH WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT ENTIRE AREA W OF 65W LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
CDFNT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL ATTM EXPECTED TO HANG UP FROM WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND THU. REMNANTS 
WILL DRIFT NW OVER GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND OVER THE NW WATERS 
THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CDFNT YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNSET 
FRI LOSING IDENTITY SAT NIGHT FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS. 
NLY WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
MIDDAY SUN.   

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 28N EITHER SIDE OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON