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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 231828
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO 26N87W TO 24N92W. AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA SHOWED MAINLY FRESH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF ON WED AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE N WATERS. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE N WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IN 24-48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT MODERATE NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE
EVENINGS.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 84W85W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND
ACROSS THE SW GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG
10N.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS WEAK MAINTAINING A LIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W 
WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 68W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SAT. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WERE NOTED AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FUNNELING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 45W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY ON WED...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THOSE
WATERS DURING WED AND WED NIGHT...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU INTO
FRI...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SAT. THESE TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL.
LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO INLAND NE FLORIDA
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS. A RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS PRODUCING LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 25N...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS S 0F 22N. THE
BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS
IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT SEAS W OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 77W.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THU AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF NE FLORIDA
AND LIFTS N OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THU AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FLORIDA E
COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NLY
WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Sep-2014 18:29:03 UTC