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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 211934
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON
THEN WITH ECMWF TUE AND WED. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE STARTING TUE.

STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA. THIS IS
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE
TEXAS COAST IS INCREASING AS WELL...FLOWING INTO A WARM FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA
OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS LOW AND ITS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT NE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE NEGATIVE
TILT OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH COULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF ON
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS
AMONG GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING STRONG NORTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN
NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE COAST OF
VERACRUZ BY TUE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS ALONG WITH THE
PARALLEL GFS AND UKMET INDICATE GALE ARE POSSIBLE FOR THAT TIME.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS ADVERTISING A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR VERACRUZ GALES ON TUE AS WELL. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF
WHICH IS SHOWING 30 KT FOR THAT TIME...A LITTLE LESS THAN THE 00Z
RUN. SINCE THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS READILY CONDUCIVE TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER RUN FROM INTRODUCING GALES TO THE SW GULF FOR TUE. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF FOR THE SW GULF AREA AT THE TIME TO DILUTE THE
STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON
THEN WITH ECMWF TUE AND WED. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE STARTING TUE.

A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON...AN
ARTIFACT OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA
YESTERDAY. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT
TO MODERATE TO FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE TROUGH...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. FARTHER EAST...STRONG HIGH PRES
OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS
AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL
N ATLC DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPANDING TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY TO 8 TO
10 FT. MEANWHILE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL DIMINISH AS
THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEAKENS. WAVE MODELS
INDICATE A NEW ROUND OF NW TO N SWELL MIX WITH DECAYING REMNANTS
OF THE TRADE SWELL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TO MAINTAIN 8 TO 9 FT SEAS
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. 

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED AND INTO NW CARIBBEAN WED...SIMILAR
TO THIS RECENT FRONT. GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING NORTHERLY GALE
WARNINGS BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NW CARIBBEAN WED.
OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS WEAKER ECMWF TO DILUTE STRONGER GFS
OUTPUT. WILL RE- EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FOR WED IN UPCOMING FORECAST ISSUANCES.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO NW CUBA. A REINFORCING
FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND THIS
WILL MERGE WITH THE EXISTING FRONT AND SHIFT E OF THE AREA THROUGH
SAT. THE FOLLOWING STRONG HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 28N
BY MON...LEAVING FRESH TRADES MAINLY S OF 24N THROUGH MID WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE
MON/EARLY TUE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...IMPACTING THE WATERS N
OF THE NW BAHAMAS. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Friday, 21-Nov-2014 19:34:35 UTC