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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 250753
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
353 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

 MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE PERSISTS IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE S TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
SHIFT NE AND REACH 20 KT IN THE LATE EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT
OF THE EAST. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER NOTED
IN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE...FORMALLY T.D. 2...CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE WAVE WILL SLOW TONIGHT AND SAT AS IT
DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SAT...PASS THROUGH
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUN AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE.
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO NEAR GALE
FORCE MOST EVENINGS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MAY SEE THE
AFFECTED AREA SHRINK SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES W OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND FORECAST FAVORS GFS
SOLUTION TO CAPTURE STRONGER LOCALIZED WINDS OFF COLOMBIA.
THERE REMAIN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS REFLECT BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWWUSED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG ROUGHLY 25N TO 27N THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW S OF 22N W OF 65W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0140 UTC
INDICATED WINDS TO 25 KT WERE ALREADY IN PLACE OFF THE N COAST OF
HAITI. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
MID/UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
THE NORTH OF 30N. THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0140 UTC
INDICATING MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW N OF 30N AHEAD OF A RELATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THE WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BY LATE MONDAY...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE IN AMZ111 NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 77W.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Friday, 25-Jul-2014 07:53:26 UTC