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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 260611
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY...DISSIPATING BY WED. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING WEST OFF
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN LOW WED THROUGH SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING ILL DEFINED AS IT
CROSSES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A STRONGER
TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES NEAR 43W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP FROM THIS
SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR 20 TO 30
KT WINDS IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ZONES TUESDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY...AND THE
EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BUT
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AFTERWARDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS ALONG 31N. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES TO ABOUT 30N THROUGH TODAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
TONIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
NORTH OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND A TROPICAL LOW MOVING INTO
THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.