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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 240534
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
134 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FL BAY WSW TO 21N93W. A SURFACE  
LOW IS OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. EXPECT THE LOW TO RAPIDLY LIFT 
OUT TO THE NE TODAY AND DRAG THE FRONT SE AGAIN REACHING THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
SE AND S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS TILL ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN 
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT...THEN SHIFT E 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REACHING THE FL BIG BEND AREA ON SUN 
NIGHT WITH A E-W RIDGE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 
FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE 
TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT. EXPECT 10-15 KT E-
SE FLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SAT...AND LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 
15N ALONG 44W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON SAT 
NIGHT AND SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE. LOW 
PRESSURE OVER EXTREME W CUBA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DRAGGING A 
COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE E STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS LATE SAT WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING NW-N ACROSS THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS W OF THE DEVELOPING LOW ON SAT. MUCH 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT...AND IF SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST THE 
FRONTAL REMNANTS TO MOVE W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
ON SUN-TUE WITH THE LOW ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT WINDS. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 3163W TO 27N71W THEN BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO SE FL. A SURFACE LOW OVER W CUBA WILL MERGE WITH 
FRONT EARLY TODAY AND LIFT RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WHILE DRAGGING THE STATIONARY PORTION SE AGAIN. A 20-30 KT WIND 
SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N 
WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 26N76W AND STRENGTHEN TO A 
MINIMAL GALE BY SUNSET TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE RACING NE 
TO NEAR 28N70W AT SUNRISE SAT AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA AT SUNSET 
SAT WITH GALE CONDITIONS ALREADY DISSIPATED. BY THE THEN THE 
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 
31N58W TO 25N65W THEN BECOME STATIONARY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
LATE SUN. THE SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 25N WILL DRIFT W AND 
DISSIPATE ON MON WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT CONTINUES E AND 
WEAKENS ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE 
WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28-29N W OF THE FRONT ON SUN AND 
SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING E OFF THE FL COAST NEAR 
30N79W ON SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON MON 
EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE SW TO NE FL ON TUE. THIS 
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 
27N W OF 65W ON MON-TUE.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. 
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING SAT.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. 

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 05:34:55 UTC