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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 050725
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
225 AM EST MON DEC 5 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to a 1007mb
low pressure located near 27N96W. Then, a cold front stretches
from the low center to near Tuxpan Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds
are noted NW of the stationary front over the NW Gulf. The low
pressure will track northeast towards SW Louisiana this evening
and drag the cold front across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong
northwest winds are expected behind the front today. The low will
move inland tonight and continue to drag the front eastward, with
the front gradually weakening as it crosses the eastern Gulf into
Tuesday. Expect widespread shower and thunderstorms developing
across the northern Gulf as the front moves across the basin.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters Tuesday evening through
Wednesday. A strong cold front will emerge off the coast of Texas
and Louisiana late Wednesday night. This front will rapidly cross
the Gulf on Thursday. Strong high pressure will build southeast
toward the northern Gulf behind the front. This will support gale
force winds of 35-40 kt across the west-central Gulf late Thursday
into Thursday night, and across the SW Gulf Thursday night into
Friday. Strong to near gale northeasterly winds are expected
across much of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front through
Friday, tapering off into the day Saturday as the high weakens
slightly and moves northeast towards the Carolinas. The latest GFS
run extends the gale conditions across the SW Gulf into Fri night.
Expect building seas of 15-16 ft across the SW Gulf within the
area of gale force winds. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected
across most of the Gulf region Thursday night into Friday.

This forecast package continues to show gale conditions possible
across forecast zones GMZ017 and GMZ023 late Thursday through
Friday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Fresh SE winds are noted across the western Caribbean between a
1022 mb high pressure over the SW N Atlantic and a cold front
moving across the Gulf of Mexico. These winds will persist today
while increasing to 20-25 kt across the western Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Honduras, this evening as the cold front
reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. The same high pressure system
will support fresh to strong trades over the waters near the coast
of Colombia at night, particularly between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC.
Seas are forecast to build to 8-9 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
these winds. Moderate to fresh winds are also expected across the
Windward Passage. By late Thursday night, a cold front will enter
the northwest Caribbean with fresh to strong northeast winds behind
it.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Large northerly swell generated by a storm system well northeast
of the forecast zones will continue to affect the northeastern
zones through tonight.

A cold front extending along 22N into the SE Bahamas will continue
to move across the SE waters through Tuesday. High pressure over
the northern zones will slide southeast through Tuesday, with
return flow developing to the west of the high. The return flow
will increase to 20 to 25 kt with seas building to 8 to 9 ft
offshore north Florida late Monday night into Tuesday as the
pressure gradient tightens between the high to the east and low
pressure over the eastern United States. By Tuesday night, a cold
front will begin to cross the northern zones. Fresh to strong SW
winds and seas of 7-9 ft will persist ahead of the front, but
mainly N of 29N. The front will reach from 31N65W to the NW
Bahamas by Wednesday night, then stall. A strong cold front will
cross the northwestern zones late Thursday, merging with the
stationary front Thursday night. Fresh to strong northwest winds
are expected in the wake of this second cold front starting on
Friday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri. 
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.