Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 020536
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS TAMPA BAY TO THE EXTREME NE TX COAST WITH A 
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE 
GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY 
EVENINGS AS AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL 
PENINSULA AND TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM 
THE ATLC RIDGE. LIGHT-GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 
180 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXPECTED 
FURTHER OUTWARD AROUND THE S AND SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND 
WESTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE 
WATERS. THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE THERMAL TROUGH 20-25 
KT ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND DISSIPATE 
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT AN E-SE 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT 
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED SE 
TO OVER FL BAY WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE 
PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR 
CENTRAL FL AND OVER WESTERN CUBA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF HAS SET UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NW GULF. THESE AREAS WILL BE 
DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT 
FURTHER N TO A POSITION FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO THE MS DELTA 
THROUGH MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS  
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS 
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW    
COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A NOCTURNAL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS 
MORNING ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER PULSE TO MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED ON THU NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT. THE 
NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF 
OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ON THU...FRI AND SAT 
NIGHTS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY.  
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
TODAY THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 13N 
ALONG 47W WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON SAT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN 
ON SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS  
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS 
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM ROUGHLY 30N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY 
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE BUT PULSE TO 15-20 KT N OF 30N AS WEAK 
TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST IMMEDIATELY STALLING AND 
WASHING OUT OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE NE FL/SE GA. MODERATE 
E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE APPROACHES TO 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY 
EVENINGS. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Jul-2015 05:37:17 UTC