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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 291736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
THE NE WATERS LATE EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR N FL DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING. THE OBSERVATION NETWORK...INCLUDING GOES-R FOG
CHANNEL...REPORTING FOG-LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF
WATERS...WITH WIDESPREAD VSBY 3-5 NM WITH EMBEDDED 1-3 NM EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS DENSE FOG WILL BE CARRIED IN WEATHER GRIDS
FOR FIRST 24 HOURS. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW...SEAS 5-8 FT...IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE W GULF WITH A SWATH OF STRONG WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6-9 FT...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE TX COASTAL BEND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
RELAX SAT AFTERNOON SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A W TO E
RIDGE SETS UP FROM NE TX TO CENTRAL FL.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO FRESH ON SAT AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO STRONG SE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 65-70W ON SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
CONTINUE TILL LATE AT NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED STRONG E
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT. A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND ON SAT EVENING. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED BRIEFLY NEAR 20N78W THIS EVENING. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL WITH
SEVERAL N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF THE RIDGE. THE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY
OVERCAST LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE
TROUGHS. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS S TO ACROSS MONA PASSAGE. A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E OFF THE SE CONUS TODAY N OF THE
RIDGE...AND PASS BERMUDA ON SAT EVENING BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SAT...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY S ON MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH STALLS OFF THE NE FL COAST AND MEANDERS THERE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.