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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 161910
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
210 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A ridge axis extends across the northern Gulf coast and through
Wednesday will support mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds over 
the gulf, with the exception of tonight near and to the NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh to locally strong winds will 
occur due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Seas will
remain generally between 4 and 6 ft.

Model guidance continues to indicate that the next cold front 
will reach the coast of Texas by Tuesday night, then stall and 
lift north while dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm 
activity is expected ahead of the frontal boundary that could 
affect the far NW Gulf. Another cold front is then expected to 
enter the NW Gulf by Thursday night with guidance indicating
widespread showers and thunderstorms spreading from west to east
across the northern Gulf Thursday through Friday. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N
BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the
Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to 
strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Caribbean Sea, 
including through the Windward and Mona passages, and in the lee
of Cuba through Wednesday night. Near gale force winds are 
expected to continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia each 
night during this time period, with seas up to 11 ft. The ridge 
north of the region will shift southeast, become elongated, and 
weaken later this week. This will allow for trades across the 
Caribbean to decrease by several knots beginning Thursday.

Over the tropical Atlantic forecast waters fresh to strong east
to northeast winds will continue north of about 15N through
tonight before decreasing to moderate. Seas of 8 to 9 ft this
afternoon will subside to 8 ft or less later tonight. Generally
tranquil conditions are then expected mid to late this week as 
high pressure shifts closer to the region. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A broad area of fresh to strong northeasterly winds and northeast
swell that has been affecting the southern zones the past few
days is now confined to mainly south of 22N. These fresh to 
strong winds will continue south of 22N through Tuesday night,
then become confined to mainly the approach to the Windward 
Passage by Wednesday. Seas to 8 ft will be possible east of the 
central Bahamas during this time period. North of 22N, gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft will prevail through 
Wednesday. High pressure will slide southward across our area 
along about 60W Tuesday through Wednesday while weakening. This 
will bring a decrease in winds over the southern zones Wednesday 
through the end of the forecast period. By Thursday night a cold 
front is forecast by global models to approach the northern 
zones, which will bring about an increase in winds to 20 to 25 kt
with seas of 8 to 11 ft, mainly north of 28N and east of 75W as 
indicated with the latest model runs.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.