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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 240757
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
357 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W 
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

A stationary front over the Gulf near the Louisiana and Texas 
coasts is being swept up by a cold front as it enters the NW 
Gulf. Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of producing 
gusty winds will continue this morning ahead of the cold front. 
The merging front will cross the western Gulf today and reach the
northeast Gulf as a merged cold front tonight. The cold front 
will then cross Florida Thursday with the tail end of the front 
stalling out from the Florida Straits to the NE tip of the 
Yucatan Peninsula. The stalled front will then dissipate through 
Friday. 

Strong SW winds are developing east of the front over the 
northeastern gulf. As the stronger cold front merges with the 
stationary front, the convection along and east of the front will
continue to lead the front as it heads east. Numerous showers 
and scattered thunderstorms will cross the eastern Gulf today and
tonight.

High pressure will build eastward over the Gulf Thursday and 
arrive over the eastern Gulf Friday into Saturday. Yet another 
cold front moving into Texas will set up a return flow scenario 
over the W Gulf by early next week. SE to S winds over the Gulf W
of 90W could become fresh to locally strong on Monday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

The E Pacific monsoon trough will continue to provide low-level 
forcing for showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern 
Caribbean the next few days. A tropical wave is moving through 
the western Caribbean in the vicinity of 80W. The wave will 
continue to move west the next day or so, before losing its 
characteristics over central America later today or tonight. 
Another tropical wave over the southern Windward Islands will 
move into the SE Caribbean today and reach the W Caribbean on 
Friday.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to 
strong east to southeast winds over the south central Caribbean 
and the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The high will slide east today,
as pressures lower in the vicinity of the monsoon trough over 
central and south America. This will cause the fresh to strong 
winds to expand in coverage northward and northwestward across 
the central Caribbean today through Friday. The high will be 
weakened by low pres passing to the N Friday night and Saturday, 
which will help to decrease the winds over the north central 
Caribbean. The high will strengthen on Sunday after the low 
passes, which will bring a return to the fresh to strong east 
winds over the Gulf of Honduras.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Satellite-derived wind data indicate strong winds have developed
east of Florida N of 29N and W of 78W. Showers and thunderstorms
are developing near 31N81W. The strong winds and convection will
expand eastward to near 29N70W by tonight as seas build to near 
8 ft. As the front crosses northern Florida tonight, model 
guidance suggests winds will increase to near gale force north of
29N, in the vicinity of a line of showers and thunderstorms that
is expected to develop ahead of the front. Will make mention of 
higher winds and seas in the vicinity of this convection.

The line of convection and trailing cold front will cross the 
waters just east of Florida early Thursday. Strong winds will 
precede the front N of 27N Thursday and Thursday night as it 
progresses eastward. Seas will peak near 14 ft at 31N75W on 
Thursday night. The front will reach from near 31N72W to 26N79W 
Friday before weakening as it drifts east across the northeast 
zones through Friday night. High pressure will build east across 
the region Friday through Saturday night, then merge with high 
pres over the Central Atlc Sunday. Ridging from the high will 
extend WSW to the Northern Bahamas through Tuesday. The ridge 
will generally maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 24N 
and light to moderate SE to S winds N of 24N during this time 
frame.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.