Marine Weather Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 071042 AAA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
540 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

UPDATED WARNINGS SECTION

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO THE PRES 
BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA S OF THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH 
PRES TO THE N CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG E WINDS ACROSS
ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTION. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
OVER THE SE AND S PORTIONS INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2324 UTC
LAST NIGHT SHOWED SEVERAL WIND VECTORS OF 30 KT OVER THE FAR 
SE WATERS S OF 25N E OF 84W. A SHIP WITH CALLER ID "H3GS" NEAR
23N87W REPORTED NE WINDS OF 37 KT NEAR 0400 UTC THIS MORNING.
THE QUIKSCAT REVEALED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT OVER OVER THE SW GULF
IN WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

AS A RESULT OF THE DURATION AND LARGE ELY FETCH OF THESE 
WINDS...SEAS HAVE GROWN UP TO 13 FT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF 
THE MIDDLE GULF. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW AND N WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE LOWER...IN 
THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT. WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA 
SLIDING E INTO NEXT WEEK AND TROPICAL RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL
STORM IDA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN W CUBA AND HONDURAS
AND FORECAST TO TRACK NNW TOWARDS THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF NEAR 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND NNE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
MIDDLE GULF MON THROUGH WED...THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO LAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR HAZARDOUS 
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. LATEST RUN OF 
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM HAVE COME INTO SOME 
CONSENSUS THAT LOW PRES OF 1010 MB OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 
19N95W WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N ON SUN AS IDA NEARS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. THE LOW THEN BECOMES ABSORB INTO THE CIRCULATION OF 
IDA MON AND TUE. WILL LOWER GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT 
OVER THE FAR SW GULF W AND SW OF THE 1010 MB LOW AS THE TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT PINCHED HERE AS WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO 
DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 26N65W TO 23N72W WILL WASH OUT 
THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES 
MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS E ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING NE WINDS TO MUCH OF 
THE WATERS N OF ABOUT 22N INTO SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS THEN 
VEER MORE TO THE E SAT THROUGH MON...AND ESE LATE MON THROUGH WED
W OF 75W AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER E AND IDA TURNS TO THE NE AND
E OVER THE EASTERN GULF. LATEST WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS BUILDING
UP TO 13 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MON...SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY WED. 
NE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE W THROUGH BAHAMA PASSAGES SAT THROUGH 
MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF STREAM 
WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE ON TUE AND WED. EXPECT NLY SWELLS UP TO 12 
FT TO REACH AS FAR S AS WATERS NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS BY MON 
...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT ON WED. NLY SWELLS OF 8 FT SHOULD
IMPACT THE WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO BEGINNING SUN NIGHT THROUGH
WED.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
IDA WAS UPGRADED TO BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM STORM A SHORT WHILE 
AGO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ABOUT 110 NM NE OF HONDURAS WITH 
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT WITH A MOTION TO THE N AT 
6 KT. IDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
REACHING NEAR 18N85W BY TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL THROUGH LATE SUN. SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAVE 
SUBSIDED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ONCE 
AGAIN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON. JUST HOW HIGH THE GIVEN SEA 
STATE IS ACHIEVED WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IDA WILL BE IN 
TACT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ONCE MOVING BACK OFF 
THE COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 6-9 FT IN LONG 
PERIOD NLY SWELLS BEGINNING LATE SUN THROUGH MON...AND POSSIBLY
UP 10 FT TUE AND WED. NE SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 FT 
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TUE AND WED.

WARNINGS...UPDATED

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.AMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N W OF 84W...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ084 AND GMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXPECTED SUN NIGHT
THROUGH WED S OF 28N E OF 89W...

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE