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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 290723
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
323 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED OFF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ON THU
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED INLAND. THE MAIN IMPACT IS
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. NO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WATERS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY.
ELSEWHERE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING...TO THE NORTH OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 1009
MB LOW PRES NEAR 23N92W TO NEAR TAMPA FL. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S
CENTRAL GULF...AND WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH
TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE
GULF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES IS ALLOWING MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT N THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS SAT AND SUN ALLOWING WINDS
TO DIMINISH. 

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE SW GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN BEFORE
DEPICTING LOW PRES FORMING IN THE SW GULF ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS AND CMC HAVE BEEN DEPICTING THIS. 00Z
ECMWF AND UKMET ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A WEAK LOW. ALL MODELS
INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO SOME DEGREE EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVER THE SW GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE
GFS AND CARRIES AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. RELATED NWPS OUTPUT
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF LATE MON AND TUE
AS THE LOW PRES DRIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS MAKING LANDFALL IN
BELIZE AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A RIDGE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W INDICATED PEAK WINDS TO 23 KT OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED ONLY 10 TO
15 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
LATER IN THE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TODAY.

A SECOND WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER
THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY S OF HISPANIOLA TO
15N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE
STRONG FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NW GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT WILL
ALLOW STRONG FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT...THE 
E CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND
TUE. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF
55W ON MON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING FROM THE NE GULF
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE ATLC WATERS TO AROUND 75W. AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THIS
TROUGH. FARTHER TO THE EAST...A RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG
ROUGHLY 27N THIS MORNING REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 70W. GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PERSIST S OF 27N. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT
WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 TO 25 KT IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW
SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BUT WILL LIKELY BE
SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT TODAY AS RESIDUAL SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL
CONTINUES TO DECAY. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND
ALLOW MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 07:23:58 UTC