Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 250759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
LATEST NWPS MODEL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
MODERATE NE- SW PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING E TO
SE WINDS UP TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
SEE AN ACCENTUATION OF WINDS TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE SW
GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATES DAILY OVER THE YUCATAN. THE SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL
ALSO REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FEET
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
LATEST GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH
THE NWPS MODEL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A MODERATE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
WINDS UP TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AN 0215Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS MEASURED E WINDS UP
TO 25 KT JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO FRESH BREEZE OR WEAKER BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH SUNDAY.

BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A 0310Z TOPEX PASS
ARE INDICATING 9-10 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS. THESE SHOULD DROP
BELOW 8 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD
SWELL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH WAVE AXES NEAR
79W AND 57W. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVE WITH
THESE FEATURES.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
LATEST GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH
THE NWPS MODEL FOR WAVES. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N66W SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 28N70W WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH TO 25N74W. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SOME OF THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT A PORTION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE BAHAMAS AS A
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW. THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES VERY
SLOWLY REACHING ONLY 75W IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. NONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ABOUT DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM INTO A DEEP CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BECOME A LOW BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY NEAR THE
GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS WOULD NOT BE A BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT. A SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON GAVE THE SYSTEM
A 30 PERCENT...LOW...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN FIVE DAYS. AN UPDATED SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TODAY BY 20Z.

WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED CURRENTLY...PEAK WINDS NEAR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE INDICATED TO REACH
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING BELOW 8 FEET.
ELSEWHERE TRADEWINDS WILL REMAIN AS MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE.

NO SUBSTANTIAL SWELL ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.