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Marine Weather Discussion



000
AGXX40 KNHC 011811
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT
260 NM E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS SE MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW PRES COULD DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUE AS IT MOVES W-NW ACROSS
THE SW GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO TUE NIGHT OR WED. MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE W
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
LOW PRES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF.
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS A LOW PRES WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT MOVING
ACROSS ZONES AMZ025 FIRST THEN ACROSS AMZ023 DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT TO THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER.
INTERESTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE SINCE WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE W
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 1512 ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE
WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF MANLY S OF 24N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT SE WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N W OF 85W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NE
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND
THE LOW PRES SHIFT FARTHER WEST. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS.
THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 68W/69W. THIS RATHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TUE...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED AND OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE
STILL LIKELY OFF COLOMBIA...BUT 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO
8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. 

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N71W CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY S OF 27N...INCLUDING THE
BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH...LIKELY A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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Page last modified: Monday, 01-Sep-2014 18:12:09 UTC