Marine Weather Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 201839
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...GFS BLENDED WITH NAM80 THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MORNING SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH
SE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NE AND
LOW PRES REMAINING OVER N CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN AREA OF WINDS TO
20 KT REMAINS OFF YUCATAN DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEK SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
TUE...THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WED THEN LIFTING OUT THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN THROUGH WED
AND WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM80 THROUGH 60 HOURS TO CAPTURE LOCAL EFFECTS
OFF YUCATAN AND THE ENHANCED FLOW OVER THE NW GULF. LOOKING AHEAD TO
SAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT PENETRATING THE NE GULF

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA AGAIN INDICATED WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILD AGAIN TO THE NORTH. FARTHER TO THE SE...A TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF
13N...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC WILL ALLOW EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO FRESHEN ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE
DIFFERENCE IN THE GLOBAL OR ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE
PATTERN...FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS BLEND WITH THE OFFICIAL TO CAPTURE
STRONGER WINDS OFF COLOMBIA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THU AND FRI
WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING N OF THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHED SE OF BERMUDA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BUOYS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA ARE SHOWING A SWATH OF E TO SE WINDS MAINLY S
OF 25N THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS N OF 25N. SEAS OUTSIDE
THE BAHAMAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E
THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY INCREASED E TO SE WINDS FROM
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO BE
CONVERGING ON A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND STALLING OVER S FLORIDA BY SAT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NE WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA AND N OF THE GRAND
BAHAMA FRI AND SAT.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.