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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 191825
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to High 
confidence.

A stationary front extends over the western Gulf from the 
Louisiana/Texas border to near Tampico Mexico. Latest satellite
derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data
depict gentle to moderate winds west of the front, moderate to 
fresh winds east of the front to 90W and gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the eastern Gulf, 
4-6 ft over the central Gulf, and 3-4 ft over the western Gulf. 
The front, accompanied by active weather, will move across the 
north Gulf waters today, then dissipate over the north-central 
waters by early Friday. 

A stronger cold front is forecast to push across the Gulf waters
during the upcoming weekend. The front will enter the 
northwestern Gulf Saturday night, reaching from southeast 
Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, and from the
Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening. A 
band of showers and thunderstorms will be accompany with the 
front. This front will bring a significant increase in winds and
seas across the Gulf waters. Strong to gale force winds are 
possible behind the front Sunday and Sunday night, with a large 
area of seas building up to 18-19 ft behind the front.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure prevails north of the forecast waters. Latest 
satellite derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and 
CMAN data depict fresh to strong winds over the south central
Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds over the north central
Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds over the eastern and western
Caribbean, and gentle winds over the tropical north Atlantic
waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the north central Caribbean, 3-4 ft over 
the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and 5-6
ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. The area of high 
pressure will weaken later this week, which will bring a decrease
in trades across the Caribbean. 

During the upcoming weekend, southeast to south winds are 
expected to increase across the western Caribbean and the Yucatan
Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. 
This front is currently forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel and
the northwest Caribbean Sunday night, accompanied by strong 
winds and building seas.

Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front extends over the northern waters. Latest satellite
derived winds and seas along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data
depict fresh to strong winds over the northeast waters, and 
light to gentle winds over the remainder of the forecast waters. 
Seas are in the 8 to 13 ft range over the northeast waters, 3-5 
ft over the remainder of the forecast waters outside the Bahamas,
and 1-2 ft west of the Bahamas. The front will continue to move 
southeast across the eastern zones on Friday, reaching the 
southeast waters by Friday night into Saturday while weakening. 
Southerly winds will increase to 20-30 kt across the northwest 
part of the forecast area on Sunday ahead of a cold front 
expected to move off the southeast coast of the United States on 
Sunday night. Strong to gale force winds are expected over the 
northern zones both ahead of, and behind, the front. 

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. 
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. 
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Mon. 
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. 
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon. 
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon. 

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster AL. National Hurricane Center.

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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Jan-2017 18:25:35 UTC