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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 281742
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER MEXICO
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SW GULF WATERS. WINDS IN THE GULF WATERS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL
CLEAR THE SMOKE OUT BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT ENE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
WED AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEPT ACROSS THE
REMAINING GULF WATERS AND SE OF THE AREA BY LATE WED NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS N OF VENEZUELA AND FAR EASTERN COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE
IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE REGION OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN N OF
HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE WED
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E
HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP CLEAR THE SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THU. TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH RIDGE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC ZONES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
STRONGEST WINDS N OF VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER
THE FAR NE WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FAR SE
WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NE
WATERS...2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS
OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. TROUGHING WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY FEEDBACK ISSUES THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO LINE IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE WED AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS WED NIGHT...THEN THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK N OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WEAKEN FROM NEAR 27N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT
NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Apr-2015 17:42:16 UTC