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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 040525
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
125 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS 
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH 
OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 
25N94W WILL SHIFT SE TODAY ENHANCING SCT RW/ISOL TS ALONG ITS 
BOUNDARY WHICH ARE DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. A 1015 MB SURFACE 
HIGH ANALYZED OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT W TO THE 
CENTRAL WATERS BY EARLY SAT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE FL 
STRAITS...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX COAST. LITTLE 
CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MON...THEN THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE 
TO OVER THE FAR SW FL COAST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE MS 
DELTA ON TUE. EXPECT LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 10-
15 KT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS. 

AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE  
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF 
WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W DURING THE 
EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING 
THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E 15-20 
KT WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL 
EVENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS 
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH 
OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW   
COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG  
NOCTURNAL TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND 
ALSO ALONG THE FAR NW COAST OF VENEZUELA. NE-E SWELLS WILL 
GENERATE COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT AS FAR W AS 13N78W ON SAT... 
THEN COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ON SUN-TUE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS 
THIS MORNING ENHANCING ISOL TS AND DENOTED IN TODAYS WEATHER 
GRIDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS 55W TONIGHT...AND ENTER 
THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E-SE 10-15 KT 
WIND SHIFT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS 
HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH 
OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO 23N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WILL  
RETRACT E TODAY ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SE INTO 
THE NW WATERS NEAR 30N77W TODAY AND ACCOMPANIED BY 5-10 KT 
CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND 
E TO W ALONG 23N E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUN WITH THE LOW 
MEANDERING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS N OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN. 
THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH ALONG 80W ON 
MON AND TUE. EXPECT E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
WATERS S OF THE RIDGE...OTHERWISE 5-10 KT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE RIDGE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N OF 
30N BETWEEN 55-70W ON SUN...AND DRIFT SE TO ALONG 26N ON TUE. 
ONLY A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT SCT 
RW/ISOL TS IS LIKELY. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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Page last modified: Friday, 04-Sep-2015 05:26:09 UTC