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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 271835
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will support mainly
moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the Gulf through
most of the day Wednesday, with the exception occasionally
strong winds due to a thermally induced trough off the west 
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Wave guidance agrees 
on generally 3 to 5 ft seas over the open waters, except tapering
to 2 to 4 ft as one nears the coast of Florida during this time
period. Model guidance continues to bring a cold front across 
the northwestern Gulf by Wednesday afternoon, reaching from 
south Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thursday night. 
Latest model guidance brings fresh to strong northerly winds 
behind the front. However, models have been trending away from 
winds nearing gale force over the southwestern gulf for Thursday.
Beyond Thursday, strong high pressure north of the Gulf will 
support fresh to strong northeast to east winds Thursday night 
through Saturday over the majority of the basin with wave 
guidance forecasting seas of 6 to 8 ft.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure building over the western Atlantic is supporting
moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and western Caribbean,
with fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, Windward
passage, and tropical Atlantic forecast waters. These trades over
the region will increase over the next two days by another 
couple of knots, with these enhanced trades persisting for the 
next several days. Each night for the remainder of the forecast 
period, winds will pulse to gale force within about 90 nm of the 
coast of Colombia due to nocturnal enhancements. Seas of 8 to 13 
ft will cover the south central Caribbean through the period, and
will expand north and eastward through the middle of the week as
the stronger trades expand eastward over the east Caribbean. 
Over the tropical Atlantic waters, expect 8 to 10 ft seas to 
prevail under the fresh to strong trades through the week. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure building just north of the region will shift east,
to the north of the area the next couple of days. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh easterly winds north of 25N, with
fresh to strong easterly winds south of 25N, with the strongest
winds along the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the
Windward Passage. Trade wind induced swell of 8 to 10 ft will
affect the southeastern zones north of the Leeward Islands 
throughout most of the week. A cold front is forecast to reach
the northwestern zones by Thursday and then move slowly southeast
across the northwestern waters into Friday. Then, strong high
pressure will begin to build in north of the front, bringing 
about an increase in northeast winds to 20 to 25 kt Friday 
through at least Saturday mainly north of 24N, as the front 
continues to sag southeastward. Current wave guidance builds seas
behind the front in these strong winds to 8 to 12 ft, highest 
along the northern forecast border of 31N. 

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     Gale Warning tonight.
     Gale Warning Tue night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Feb-2017 18:35:30 UTC