| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 230735
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
235 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0600 UTC, a 1012 mb low pressure system is located near 
28N86W. A stationary front extends from the low across northern 
Florida into the SW N Atlantic. A cold front also stretches from 
the low SW across the eastern Bay of Campeche. A vigorous short-
wave trough rotating through a very well pronounced longwave 
trough that enters the gulf across SE Louisiana, and extends to 
near Tuxpan, Mexico supports these features. High pressure is 
building southward over the western gulf behind the front cold 
front with a 1027 mb center near Tmpico, Mexico. A very tight 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and the cold front 
has resulted in a large swath of strong to gale force northerly 
winds overtaking the waters to the W of the cold front. The most 
recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. 
In addition, an altimeter pass indicated seas of near 15 ft over
the western Bay of Campeche. Doppler Radar shows scattered 
showers and thunderstorms over the NE gulf waters in association
with the low while similar convective activity is now approaching
SW Florida and the Florida Keys. Winds and seas could be higher 
near tstms. The low pressure will move across northern Florida 
today reaching the SW N Atlantic by this evening dragging the 
associated cold front, forecast to cross the Yucatan Channel by 
early Fri morning. Minimal gale force winds are expected to 
persist over the SW gulf through early this morning, then winds
and seas will begin to gradually dimisnish across the gulf region
as the front exits the area. High pressure in the wake of the 
front will dominate the gulf on Fri with gentle to moderate 
northerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Southerly return flow will
briefly set-up over the western gulf on Sat, then a ridge will 
build again across the gulf waters on Sun, producing mainly 
gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W... 

A persistent surface trough is analyzed along 81W from 11N to 
22N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near 
this feature. The trough is forecast to drift eastward over the 
next couple of days as a cold front reaches the NW Caribbean. 
Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted E of 
the trough axis over the east and central Caribbean while mainly 
gentle northerly winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail west of the 
trough axis over the western Caribbean. The cold front, currently
moving across the Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to enter the NW 
Caribbean by early Fri morning, reaching from western Cuba to 
Belize by Fri evening, and from central Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras on Sat evening while dissipating. The pressure gradient 
between building high pressure over Central America and the 
frontal boundary should bring an increase in northerly winds of 
mostly 20 kt with possible pockets of 25 kt within about 120 nm 
off the Nicaragua coast tonight through Monday night along with 
max combined seas of 6 or 7 ft. There is a possibility that seas 
may reach 8 ft on Monday as suggest by latest marine guidance. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A ridge is now confined to the extreme SE waters. A 1008 mb low
pressure is over the NE waters near 30N67W with a cold front 
extending southwestward to the SE Bahamas. Latest satellite 
imagery shows a large area of showers, with embedded tstms on 
the SE semicircle of the low center. The most recent ASCAT pass 
provided observations of minimal gale force winds within about 
150 nm on the SE quadrant of the low, with a swath of fresh to 
strong southerly winds covering the waters N of 23N between 63W 
and 67W. An altimeter pass indicated seas up to 14 ft within the 
area of gale force winds. These conditions will exit forecast 
zone AMZ115 late this morning as the low pressure moves north of 
area. 

Another low pressure system, currently over the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico, will move across northern Florida today reaching the SW 
N Atlantic by this evening. The associated cold front will move
across the western and central waters trough early Sunday morning,
and across the eastern and SE waters late Sunday through Monday 
as it weakens to a frontal trough. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms with possible gusty winds are expected with both 
the low and the cold front. Model guidance suggests that a 
reinforcing cold front will reach the north waters by Sun evening
and move southward through Mon night, than stall near 27N on Tue.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning early today.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning early today.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Nov-2017 07:35:57 UTC