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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 171830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF GENERATING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. GENTLE NLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE
TROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS TROUGH AND MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF THROUGH THU...DISSIPATING BY FRI.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 24N96W TO
19N94W. THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH. AN ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS INDICATED LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DROP SE-S THROUGH THE GULF E OF 88W.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SE GULF BY FRI MORNING AND WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER INTO SAT
MORNING. NO OTHER MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE N WATERS ON SAT. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN DURING
THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...WEAK RIDGE N OF AREA IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT BASED ON
BUOYS AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS
INCREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTENDS ALONG 58W S OF 22N. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COVERING THE AREA
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. THE EDGE OF AN 1300 UTC
ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI
AND FRI NIGHT...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE W
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 38W S OF 18N
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY SAT
AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN. SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION LATER TODAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE FORECAST REGION WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE NE PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF
28N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE WATERS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES
MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA...
BUT WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PARENT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE
NW BAHAMAS THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FRI
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE NW PORTION BY SUN. WEAK LOW
PRES IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL
APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST N OF 31N. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF
28N ON THU...WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. EXPECT
GENTLE TO MODERATE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS 0F 4-5 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 18:30:47 UTC