| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 300851 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
344 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA UNDER 
CARIBBEAN SEA PORTION 

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT 
ADDED THE 00 ECMWF INTO THE BEGINNING TUE. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 
BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH 
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SW TO THE N 
CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
LAST NIGHT TO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ALONG IT. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS 
ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE 
WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE E WINDS S 
OF 26N AND E OF 86W. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0326 UTC LAST NIGHT 
INDICATED THESE WINDS AS WELL. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN 
SECTION...AND THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
WHERE SEAS ARE 2 FT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE 
MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT TO SET UP ACROSS 
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH IN SPEEDS AND 
SEAS TO LOWER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN BY 
LATE MON. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING LOW PRES FROM THIS 
WAVE...AND AGGRESSIVELY SPINNING IT UP WHILE TAKING IT NEWD FROM 
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS THE FAR SE GULF WED. FOR NOW WILL 
DISCOUNT THAT SOLN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY THERE...AND BLEND 
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MORE REASONABLE SOLN FROM THE LATEST 
ECMWF INTO THE NDFD GRIDS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 FOR THE TIME BEING. 
THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A TROUGH FEATURE INSTEAD OF THE MORE 
AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN. IN ANY EVENT...LOOKING AT THE PRECIPITABLE 
WATER GUIDANCE AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STREAM 
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
STARTING TUE...AND WITH THIS PORTION OF THE GULF EXPECTED TO BE 
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND 
STRONG SLY JET EXPECT ADDED INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES TO 
SET THE STAGE FOR AND INCREASE OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR 
THAT PART OF THE GULF NEXT WEEK. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE 
...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AND 
WED.

THE BROAD TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT 
APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INTO THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY MORNING...AND AS OF 06 UTC IT IS ANALYZED 
ALONG 68W/69W S OF 18N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS 
ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE NE WINDS 
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA S OF 16N...WHILE GENERALLY GENTLE 
E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. THE 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE E 
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND 
LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THAT PART OF THE ATLC. SEAS ARE IN 
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN...3-5 
FT ELSEWHERE E OF 77W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 77W PER BUOY AND 
ALTIMETER DATA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...PEAK SEA HEIGHTS ARE 
DUE TO NE SWELLS WITH SEAS NOW IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT S OF 
17N...AND LOWER SEAS OF 5-7 FT N OF 17N.  

THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN OVER MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA AS THE WAVE ADVANCE WESTWARD...AND ATLC 
HIGH HIGH PRES BUILDS SW TOWARDS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE TIGHTER GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW  
FOR A LARGE FETCH OF E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT TO 
IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE WAVE REACHES THE 
WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO   
8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS 
TODAY...AND TO 9 FT IN NE SWELLS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN BEFORE 
LOWERING BACK TO 6-8 FT TUE NIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING WATER VAPOR SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF 
CLOUDINESS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO 
E CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL 
WAVE HAS SET A VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 
UNSETTLED WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS ALSO STREAMING ENE 
TOWARDS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. AS MENTIONED ABOVER UNDER GULF OF 
MEXICO...THE LATEST GFS SPINS UP A LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
TUE...AND LIFTS IT NNE TOWARDS NW CUBA ON WED. WILL OPT FOR THE 
ECWMF SOLN FOR TIME BEING FOR TUE AND WED AS ENERGY FROM THE 
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 67W/68W MAY BE PART OF THE 
INGREDIENTS THAT SETS UP THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER...THINKING 
MORE LIKE THAT RELATED TO A TROUGH FOR NOW...IN THE NW CARIBBEAN 
SEA NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS SCENARIO MAY CHANGE WITH LOW PRES 
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THOSE TIMES. NDFD GRIDS WILL BE 
ADJUSTED AS FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.  

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH 
THE 00 UTC MWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N66W SW TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW AT 
26N69W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 24N71W. STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT 
TO ITS N...WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... 
BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE NE-E WINDS W OF THE 
TROUGH...AND GENTLE E-SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH...AND ALSO 
REVEALED N THE 0144-0146W UTC ASCAT PASS. LATEST SEA STATE 
REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND ALTIMETER PASSES EXHIBIT 
SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT N OF 
30N E OF 72W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. 

AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND 
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. 
THE STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NW WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A WEAK 
PRES PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE IT IS 
NOT PRESENTLY FOUND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY GENTLE 
E-SE WINDS OVER THE AREA AND RATHER LOW SEA STATE EXCEPT FOR NE 
SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 30-May-2015 08:51:23 UTC