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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 281800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1018 MB HIGH PRES IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NE GULF S OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO THE SE TEXAS COAST.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS THROUGHOUT. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASSES
SHOW SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH THAT TYPICALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD ATTENDED BY A PERIOD OF FRESH NE WINDS
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT. WINDS COULD
BECOME FRESH TO STRONG ON SAT NIGHT AND DIMINISH BY EARLY SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
LOWER PRES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL REACH FROM THE COASTS
OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA TO THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF JAMAICA
AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 79W. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO
11 FT. THE GRADIENT PRODUCING THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
FRI AND FRI NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION. HOWEVER...THE MAX SEAS OF 11 FT WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE IN THE CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND
SAT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 22N ALONG 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT LATE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE AND AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N75W IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THE RIDGING IS MAINTAINING
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND
72W. A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS EVIDENT N OF 26N/27N NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE
E-SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN S OF 26N/27N.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE N COASTS OF CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA PULSING BRIEFLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEAS N OF HISPANIOLA COULD REACH 8 FT ON SAT NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Jul-2016 18:00:48 UTC