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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 100801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
301 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN 1027 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF AND A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE SE GULF YESTERDAY. SEAS ARE STILL
8 TO 11 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TODAY IN THE EASTERN GULF AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS
EAST LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER THE NW
GULF THEN DIMINISH...AS WILL OVERNIGHT NE WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE OOZ GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK LOW
PRES N OF THE AREA DRIFTING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST THU THROUGH LATE FRI...WITH A TRAILING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PRES MAY ENHANCE WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NE GULF THU INTO
FRI...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. BUILDING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN GULF SAT INTO SUN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
LATE MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WILL MOVE SE
AND MERGE WITH AN STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
WESTERN PANAMA. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
TO PERSIST WITH SEAS REACHING 12 FT. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SE AND S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA WED NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEE OF CUBA
THU INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH
SAT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT INTO SUN AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING STRONG NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO MON.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD
EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE
NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI WITH THE TRADE WIND SWELL TO 8
FT PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

A 0245Z ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SUSTAINED GALES WERE NOT
FINSIHED OVER THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
THIS IS INDUCED BY THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SUSTAINED
GALES AND GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N W
OF 65W INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW
PRES MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS FROM 8 TO 17 FT NE OF
THE BAHAMAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL THROUGH FRI. A FROM
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA  WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...MERGING
WITH A STALLED FRONT FARTHER EAST ON THU...THEN THE MERGED FRONT
WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NW WATERS SAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
 GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Feb-2016 08:02:09 UTC