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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 280602
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTS THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND
WILL REMAIN THERE INTO TONIGHT SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF TROUGH. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY WILL BECOME
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS N OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
FRI...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FRIDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGING
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E TO NE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. 

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO
OUR TROPICAL ATLANTIC ZONES ALONG 55W WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY. GALE WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 13N. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY...WHILE
INTENSIFYING. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS WINDS BELOW STORM
FORCE ALONG THE SYSTEMS PATH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS 
FORECAST WOULD LIKELY CHANGE ONCE NHC BEGINS ADVISORIES ON THIS
SYSTEM. THE TRACK BECOMES UNCERTAIN BEYOND FRIDAY AS GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...GULF OF MEXICO...SW N ATLC...AND THE EASTERN U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THIS PATTERN AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOLLOWS
A MODEL BLEND THAT TURNS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG 75W ON
SATURDAY...REACHING WESTERN CUBA ON MONDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION WORDING WITHIN THE OFFSHORES AND
OTHER FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED BY THE NHC.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHWARD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER SE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
INCREASE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIVERGE AFTERWARDS. AS A RESULT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN WATERS IN
THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND BAHAMAS 
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING
CAYMAN BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN NIGHT. 
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...
     GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. 
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     GALE WARNING WED INTO THU. 
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. 
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN. 
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING
VENEZUELA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. 
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO...
     GALE WARNING WED INTO THU. 
.AMZ037...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND
65W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. 

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Sep-2016 06:03:24 UTC