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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 260850
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SE ACROSS ERN GULF WHILE MORE
QUICKLY ACROSS SE MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NLY GALES SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF SW
GULF GENERALLY S OF 23N...WHILE NWLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST INVOF
VERACRUZ LIKELY NEAR 40 KT. IN FACT...ISLA DE SACRAFICIO OBS TODAY
SHOWED GALES FROM 17Z TO PRESENT WITH A FEW PERIODS OF 40G48 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT DOWNSTREAM...PEMEX BUOY BMO REPORTING PEAK
SEAS JUST UNDER 5M A COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BUMPED UP PEAK
SEAS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH. NNW GALES EXPECTED IN ELONGATED LINE
BEHIND FRONT FROM OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN TO OFFSHORE ZONES W OF
TAMPA AREA...TO SHIFT SE BEHIND FRONT AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 30 KT BY 12Z AS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS JET
DYNAMICS E OF SHARP MID-UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LOWER TROP IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT. MIA CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUP AND REPORTING 26/25 C. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN RECENT
GUIDANCE AND THUS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING. GALES ENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY 12Z THIS MORNING
WITH FRONT CONTINUING SE TROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF
FL 12-18Z WITH NLY FLOW 20-25 KT BUILDING BEHIND IT ACROSS E AND
SE PORTIONS...AND SEAS SUBSIDING VERY SLOWLY. BENIGN SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO N PORTIONS TONIGHT AND INDUCE
REINFORCING PRES GRADIENT TO FRESHEN WINDS ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND
INTO E BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI...WHILE NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT
SWEEP BEHIND FRONT ACROSS N PORTIONS. 1034 MB HIGH ACROSS TN
VALLEY BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT TO SHIFT SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS SE
U.S. FRI AND SAT AND GRADUALLY VEER FLOW AS BROAD RIDGE BECOME
WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS BASIN...AND RETURN FLOW 15-20 DEVELOPS
ACROSS TEXAS WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. RIDGE TO INDUCE FRESH ENE
TRADES THROUGH STRAITS AND SE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND
REDEVELOP SEAS THERE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN E OF 79W...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH
NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS ARE REPORTING
SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LIKELY BUILDING
TO 11 FT OFF COLOMBIA. WEAKENING S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT...NOW REACHING MMUN. 

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM W CENTRAL CUBA ALONG
80W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY 00Z TONIGHT...THEN HANG UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS NW CARIB AND
CUBA...REACHING E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY 00Z SAT BEFORE STALLING
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NLY WINDS AROUND 25
KT WILL SPILL INTO NW CARIB BEHIND FRONT TODAY...WITH FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS TO 30 KT MAINLY W PORTIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE
PREVAILS. HOWEVER...SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL
INCREASE RES GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH THU W PORTIONS...WITH NNE
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT...AND GFS PARALLEL RUN SHOWING SMALL
SPOTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS THU EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND WINDS 30 KT BEHIND FRONT IN LEE OF E CENTRAL CUBA.
HAVE HAND EDITING WINDS TO NUDGE IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT NO GALES
IN HONDURAS ATTM. WINDS AND SEAS TO THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
W HALF OF BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF AND W ATLC RIDGE
SHIFTS E AND FLOW ON S SIDE VEERS TO NE THEN ENE BY MON. HIGHER
RES GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA REACHING
GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY N OF AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BUT WITH SAME BIASES OF RECENT
DAYS WITH EUROPEAN MODELS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SE OF GFS FRONTAL
POSITION.

MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF INDUCED LLVL INVERTED TROUGHS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC TO THE E HAVE CREATED A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO THE NE CARIB AND ARE AGAIN
PUMPING UP SEAS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH BUOY 41044 NOW AT 12
FT. THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL SHIFT W AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS THE W ATLC NEXT 48-72 HOURS...WITH RIDGE SHIFTING E AND
GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THU. 

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ATLC RIDGING DOMINATING THE WRN BASIN THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT E TODAY THROUGH FRI AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS FAR NW WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS STILL INDICATING 35-50 KT LLVL SLY JET AHEAD
OF FRONT THIS MORNING...AND SLY GALES EXPECTED TO WORK DOWN TO
THE SURFACE IN A NARROW BAND E OF FRONT 09-18Z BEFORE SHIFTING N
OF AREA. SFC LOW LONG FRONT ALONG SC COAST WILL MOVE NNE ALONG
FRONT TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE NW GALES BEHIND FRONT...AND NW WINDS 25-30 KT EXPECTED
BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS EARLY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO SOLID 25 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO RESUME
MOVING SE THIS MORNING...REACHING 31N73W TO W CENTRAL CUBA ALONG
80W BY 00Z TONIGHT...AND 27N65W TO E CUBA BY 00Z SAT. WINDS BEHIND
FRONT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS STRAITS
OF FL...BEFORE SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS NW PORTIONS EARLY
THU AND INCREASES GRADIENT AGAIN FOR SECOND PULSE OF BUILDING NW-N
WAVE ENERGY. RIDGE TO SHIFT E OFF OF E COAST OVER WEEKEND WITH
WINDS QUICKLY VEERING NE SAT AND ENE TO E SUN...WHEN TRADES S OF
25-26N WILL FRESHEN TO 20-25 KT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. 

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 26-Nov-2014 10:03:32 UTC