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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 220823
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
323 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DECREASING CONFIDENCE
STARTING TUE.

STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING E-SE ACROSS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG PRE GRADIENT N OF THE
BOUNDARY PRODUCING BROAD ZONE OF ELY WINDS AROUND 20 KT ATTM
ACROSS GULF E OF 87.5W PER RECENT ASCAT PASS...WHILE E-NE WINDS
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE STRAITS...WHERE
A 2345Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 8-9.5 FT ALONG 80.5W...AND
COULD CERTAINLY BE HIGHER DOWNSTREAM BETWEEN EYW AND MUHA WHERE
WIND IS DIRECTLY AGAINST CURRENT. BUOYS ACROSS E GULF SHOWING SEAS
6-8 FT ATTM...AND 4-7 W HALF WITH MAX REPORTED BY 42020. WIND OFF
TEXAS COAST HAS BACKED TO E-SE PAST 12 HOURS AND DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KT AS RIDGE TO N IS SLOWLY SHIFTING E. HIGH WILL SHIFT E-SE
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE SUN WITH LLVL
FLOW QUICKLY VEERING ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED LOW. THIS LOW AND ITS
SUPPORTING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH COULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF ON
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO GALE WARNING FORCE E OF MOUTH OF MS
RIVER. SFC LOW PRES FORECAST BY MODELS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TEXAS
EARLY SUN AND SWEEP NE ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...INDUCING
SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR 25-30 KT ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING NE ACROSS NE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS TO BUILD 6-9 FT POSSIBLY
TO 10 FT LATE SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS NE PORTIONS IN THIS STRONG S TO
SW FLOW.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG
GLOBAL MODELS WITH COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM MON-TUE WITH MODELS
INDICATING STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE TUE
BEHIND SECONDARY PUSH FOLLOWING FRONT...WITH GALES POSSIBLE OFF
THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY TUE AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING...THEN ALL
MODELS SUGGESTING GALES ACROSS SW PORTIONS BEHIND ADVANCING FRONT
BY 00Z WED WITH GALES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND
SHIFTING ACROSS SE PORTIONS DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT AND THEN TROUGHYUCATAN
CHANNEL 12-18Z. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS ADVERTISING A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR VERACRUZ-BAY OF CAMPECHE GALE WARNING BY 12Z TUE. AS
THIS IS BECOMING CLEARER WITH EACH RUN...WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE
GALES FOR SW PORTIONS STARTING 00Z WED AND ADJUST WITH SUCCESSIVE
RUNS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

A FRONTAL TROUGH PERSIST EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS
MORNING...AND IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A SHEAR LINE PER RECENT ASCAT
PASS. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NW
PORTIONS PAST 24 HOURS...WITH 42056 NOW DOWN TO 3 FT. MEANWHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL MOST OF BASIN...WITH 20-25 KT
FLOW OFF OF COLOMBIA TO 13.5N...AND 20 KT SPILLING THROUGH
WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIND SURGE MOVING INTO LESSER ANTILLES LAST
NIGHT HAS WEAKENED AS LLVL WEAKNESS INDUCED BY TUTT LOW OVER NE
CARIB FORCING PRES GRADIENT WINDS TO THE N AND NE OF ERN CARIB.
ASSOCIATED ELY TRADE WIND SWELL HAS SHIFTED WWD AND HAS BLED INTO
ERN CARIB AND MOVED W AND NW ACROSS ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF NE
CARIB WHERE 41043 IS HOLDING AROUND 8 FT...AND SEAS 8-9 FT THERE
AND ACROSS N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRES ACROSS
ERN U.S. WILL SHIFT E-SE INTO W ATLC NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS SRN ATLC WATERS AND INCREASE PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS E CARIB LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS HIGH PASSES
DIRECTLY N OF AREA. TUTT LOW TO WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME
AND LOSE INFLUENCE ON LOWER TROP AND SFC FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD
ACCORDINGLY TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE WINDS OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WILL REMAIN 20 KT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 25 KT AS
ATLC RIDGING CONTINUES INTO BAHAMAS.

THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN
CHANNEL WED AND INTO NW CARIBBEAN LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY
WED...SIMILAR TO THIS RECENT FRONT. MODELS SUGGESTING NORTHERLY
GALE WARNING BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NW CARIBBEAN WED AND
COULD SPREAD S INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WED EVENING AND NIGHT. GFS-
ECMWF BLEND CURRENTLY YIELDING WINDS JUST BELOW GALES BEHIND FRONT
AND WILL HOLD THERE FOR THIS PACKAGE. NEW TUTT LOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC E OF AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INVERTED
TROUGH REFLECTED AT SFC ACROSS ATLC SHIFTING W INTO TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS BY THU. PRES GRADIENT INDUCED N OF THIS TROF BY ATLC
RIDGE TO REINVIGORATE STRONG TRADES ACROSS N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS TUE-WED BEFORE TROUGH MOVES INTO AREA THU AND
GRADIENT WINDS SHIFT N OF AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR
25N70W...THEN COLD FRONT MOVING E-SE TO NEAR 31N57W. 1035 MB HIGH
BEHIND FRONT SHIFTING EWD INTO CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AND
MAINTAINING STRONG PRES GRADIENT N OF THIS OLD BOUNDARY...WITH
E-NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 30 KT THROUGH NE
BAHAMAS INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE KEYS
AND STRAITS. 2345Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 11 FT JUST
OFFSHORE OF FLL AND MODELS OBVIOUSLY NOT CAPTURING WAVE HEIGHTS
ACCURATELY IN THE COMPLEX BATHYMETRIC ZONE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
E-SE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN STRONG ELY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 6-9 FT IN
THE LEE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 28N BY
MON...LEAVING FRESH TRADES MAINLY S OF 24N THROUGH MID WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE
MON/EARLY TUE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES STRONG NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...IMPACTING THE WATERS N
OF THE NW BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Saturday, 22-Nov-2014 08:23:55 UTC