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Marine Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AGXX40 KNHC 290717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WNW TO ESE ACROSS BASIN CENTERED ON 1018 MB
HIGH IN W CENTRAL GULF. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S INTO GULF
COASTAL PLAINS WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH SINKING S INTO IMMEDIATE NE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WLY FLOW TO ITS S 15-20 KT AND
KICKING UP SEAS 4-5 FT IN BIG BEND BASIN. ACTIVE EVENING CNVTN HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS AND INTO NWLY SHEAR. ANOMALOUS JULY MID-UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...AND GRADUALLYWEAKEN
BEYOND WED. CURRENT FRONT WILL STALL ALONG ABOUT 29N TONIGHT THEN
WEAKEN AND SINK SLIGHTLY S THROUGH WED BEFORE DRIFTING N ALONG THE
COAST WED NIGHT. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO PUSH S AND INTO SE GULF
ALONG ABUT 26N BY WED-THU. W TO NW FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS BIG
BEND REGION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK WITH LATE EVENING PULSE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT OFF W AND NW
COAST OF YUCATAN DAILY. MODELS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT ON FEATURES
WITH ECMWF AND UKMET A BIT FARTHER S AND SE WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH
AND FRONT...AND HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH THU THEN GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

LATEST TROPICAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED WWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
LEAVING FRESH FLOW ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS PER LATEST ASCAT
PASSES...WHERE PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FT POSSIBLY TO 6. ATLC RIDGE
NOSING INTO E APPROACH TO STRAITS OF FL AND PRODUCING SUFFICIENT
PRES GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT SHORTLY. ATLC RIDGE TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LOW NUDGE ATLC HIGH NNE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO E AND NE
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS TO THUS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN FRESH AND PEAK AROUND 25 KT AT NIGHT
THU AND FRI NIGHTS. INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN
TO FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 37W THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS AND UKMET MOST AGGRESSIVE. GFS
REMAINS SLOWEST OF MODELS AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE UKMET A BIT FASTER...AND THE WEAKEST SOLUTION
OF ECMWF SLIGHTLY MORE WWD AND A BIT FASTER THAN UKMET. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRY TO CREATE GRIDS BASED ON A UKMET-ECMWF
CONSENSUS...BUT DIFFICULT TO DO WITH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IN GFE.
06Z SHIPS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN RELATIVELY AGGRESSIVE...AND A
TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS...REACHING
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT AND ENTERING NE CARIB FRI NIGHT-
EARLY SAT. NW CURVATURE OF SYSTEM BY GFS BEING INFLUENCED BY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT...AND PREFER UKMET SOLUTION ATTM. STILL EARLY FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REALIGN SW TO NE THROUGH DAY 3 AS
E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW NUDGE ATLC HIGH
NE...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SW FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW WATERS N OF 28-29N W OF 75W AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH WED. FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN BY 48 HRS
FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN DRIFT VERY SLOWLY W WED-
FRI BACK ACROSS NW WATERS AND ACROSS FLORIDA AS E COAST LOW LIFTS
N AND OUT OF REGION. MODERATE E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS S AND
SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH THU. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...TROPICAL LOW ALONG 37W EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKING MORE LIKELY ATTM.
CURRENTLY PREFER A ECMWF-UKMET CONSENSUS WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
ACROSS NE CARIB...AND GFS SEEMS TO REFLECT MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND THUS PREMATURE RECURVATURE. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 29-Jul-2014 07:17:17 UTC