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High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific)



000
FZPN03 KNHC 021522
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1630 UTC THU OCT 02 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 04.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 18.4N 107.1W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 
02 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
30 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. 
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE  
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A 
LINE FROM 16N105W TO 07N101W TO 07N120W TO 10N120W TO 16N105W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 19.3N 110.3W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 18N104W 
TO 09N104W TO 09N117W TO 18N109W TO 08N104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.4N 113.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 60 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 
90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 108W AND 118W WINDS  
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 22.5N 115.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.                        
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 24.0N 115.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 25.0N 115.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

.N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 
FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF A LINE FROM 02S81W TO 06N100W TO 00N120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE...SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF A LINE FROM 01S80W TO 03.4S105W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF A LINE FROM 00N80W TO 03.4S90W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N NW TO WINDS 20   
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC THU OCT 02...

.TROPICAL SIMON...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN   
150 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 12N98W TO 19N104W...WITHIN 180 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...AND FROM 21N TO 23N E OF 107W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 15N98W THEN    
RESUMES FROM 15N111W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS E OF 140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 03N E OF 82W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 132W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Oct-2014 15:22:55 UTC