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High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific) (Text)



000
FZPN03 KNHC 010914
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1030 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT NOV 01.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN NOV 02.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON NOV 03.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 9.4N 102.7W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC NOV 
01 MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 10.5N 106.3W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 109W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 13.2N 110.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER... 
EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE...EXCEPT TO 120 NM S 
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA 
FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W AND FROM 08N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 17.1N 110.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR 
GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 20.5N 109.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 23.5N 
106.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N97W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. 
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 12N100W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 13N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 
TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 12N99W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW 
SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 13.5N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 12N100W N TO NE WINDS 20 
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 14.5N95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE 
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14.5N95W TO 13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W 
AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW 
SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N122W TO 26N126W TO 22N135W. FROM 13N TO 18N 
W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N125W TO 18N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT IN NW SWELL...EXCEPT 12 TO 13 FT N OF 29N W OF 135W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 22N W OF A LINE FROM 22N130W TO 10N140W 
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE WIND 
WAVES AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF A LINE FROM 30N116N 
TO 10N134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 122W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF 114W N OF A LINE FROM 
20N1140W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W...EXCEPT N OF 27N W OF 130W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 9.5N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 9.5N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0715 UTC SAT NOV 01...

.TROPICAL STORM VANCE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 270 
NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 10N95W...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 08N108W TO 08N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N123W 1009 
MB TO 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE N OF 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 
11N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 
131W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Nov-2014 09:15:00 UTC