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High Seas Forecast (Tropical NE Pacific) (Text)



000
FZPN03 KNHC 172102
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2230 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED SEP 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU SEP 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI SEP 19.

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 16.4N 103.7W 991 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 17 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM W SEMICIRCLE...180 NM NE QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.2N 105.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WITHIN 
70 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE...150 NM 
SE...90 NM SW AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 
100W AND 108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.8N 106.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE... WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 75 NM 
NE QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 
150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 19.2N 108.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 80 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 
31 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM S AND 120 NM N SEMICIRCLES WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.  
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 20.5N 110.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 21.5N 113.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 22.0N 115.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF ODILE...NEAR 31.1N 112.7W 1004 MB AT 
2100 UTC SEP 17 MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS N OF 28N 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF ODILE INLAND. OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N129W TO 23N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. 
.18 HOUR FORECAST FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N126W TO 23N140W. W OF 
TROUGH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 2030 UTC WED SEP 17...

.TROPICAL STORM POLO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N84W TO 12N93W TO 14N99W THEN 
RESUMES SW OF T.S. POLO NEAR 14N105W TO 12N110W TO 10N123W. ITCZ 
FROM 10N123W TO 09N128W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W...FROM 07N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 
114W. 

$$
.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 21:02:55 UTC