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Public Information Statement

NOUS41 KWBC 151210
Public Information Statement, Comment Request
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
811 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2013 
To:         Subscribers:
           -Family of Services
           -NOAA Weather Wire Service
           -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
           Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees
From:      Mark Tew
           Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch 
Subject:   Extension of Comment Period for Experimental Wind
           Speed Probabilities-Based Tropical Cyclone Danger
           Graphic From May 13, 2013, Through November 30, 2013.
The NWS Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) is extending
the user feedback period for its experimental wind speed
probabilities-based tropical cyclone danger graphic into the
2013 hurricane season. The period is from May 15, 2013, through
November 30, 2013.
The current Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic uses the
mariners 1-2-3 rule to outline avoidance areas for active
tropical cyclones. Some users feel the 1-2-3 methodology has led
to over-warned large avoidance areas.
For the 2012 Hurricane Season, TAFB provided an experimental
Tropical Cyclone Danger Area graphic based on the 34-kt wind
speed probabilities. The graphic goes out through 72 hours from
the latest active tropical cyclone advisory using the 10% and
50% 34-kt wind speed probability contours. Feedback suggested
that the 10% contour represented a much smaller potential
avoidance area than what is considered adequate for planning
purposes. For the 2013 Hurricane season, the graphic will outline
avoidance areas using the 5% and 50% 34-kt wind speed probability
contours from the latest tropical cyclone advisory issuances for
both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. 
When there are no active tropical cyclones in either basin, the
graphic will be blank with the following wording: THERE IS NO
These experimental tropical cyclone danger area graphics are
available four times daily at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200
Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) on the National Hurricane Center
(NHC) website at:
A comprehensive description of the tropical cyclone danger area
graphic is posted at:
Users are encouraged to provide feedback on this experimental
product by using the brief survey and comment form available on
line at:
A link to all NHC experimental products is also provided at:
If you have comments or questions please contact:
Hugh Cobb
Chief, Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
National Hurricane Center
Phone:  305-229-4454
NWS Public Information Statements are online at:

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Apr-2013 23:35:09 UTC