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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023
 
The depression is becoming a bit better organized this morning, 
with a curved band seeming to wrap around the apparent center.   
While overnight satellite showed multiple low-level swirls within 
the large circulation envelope, it seems like the system is 
consolidating now near a large burst of convection.  Satellite 
estimates still support an initial intensity of about 30 kt for this 
advisory.
 
There hasn't been a lot of net movement with the system, with 
perhaps a slight north-northeastward motion recently.  The system 
should begin to move northeastward or east-northeastward at a slow 
pace later today as it becomes more steered by the flow associated 
with a mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean.  
This pattern will likely take the system near the coasts of El 
Salvador or Guatemala later on Tuesday.  There has been a slight 
southeastward trend in the model guidance, and the NHC forecast is 
nudged in that direction.  After that time, the synoptic pattern is 
unchanged with a strong cold front expected to move across Mexico 
and the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the cyclone to reverse its course 
and head southwestward away from land. The NHC track forecast is 
again a little slower than the previous one at long range.  
Confidence in the details of the track forecast remains low since 
the forward speed of the cyclone and timing of the cold front will 
make the difference in whether or not the system moves inland over 
Central America or remains offshore.
 
If the low-level center can continue consolidating, then some 
slow strengthening should begin later today.  More significant 
intensification is possible Monday assuming a central core can 
develop, with almost all guidance showing the system near hurricane 
strength on Tuesday. After that, strong vertical wind shear, 
possible land interaction, and intrusions of dry air and stable air 
will likely cause a weakening trend.  Very little change was made 
to the intensity forecast, which remains near the 
corrected-consensus aids.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain
along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
through Wednesday.
 
2. The depression is expected to strengthen as it approaches
Guatemala and El Salvador, and tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be required for portions of those areas later today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 11.0N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 11.2N  92.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 11.6N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 11.9N  91.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 12.2N  90.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 12.4N  89.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 11.8N  89.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 10.7N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  03/1200Z  9.5N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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