ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 The depression is becoming a bit better organized this morning, with a curved band seeming to wrap around the apparent center. While overnight satellite showed multiple low-level swirls within the large circulation envelope, it seems like the system is consolidating now near a large burst of convection. Satellite estimates still support an initial intensity of about 30 kt for this advisory. There hasn't been a lot of net movement with the system, with perhaps a slight north-northeastward motion recently. The system should begin to move northeastward or east-northeastward at a slow pace later today as it becomes more steered by the flow associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean. This pattern will likely take the system near the coasts of El Salvador or Guatemala later on Tuesday. There has been a slight southeastward trend in the model guidance, and the NHC forecast is nudged in that direction. After that time, the synoptic pattern is unchanged with a strong cold front expected to move across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the cyclone to reverse its course and head southwestward away from land. The NHC track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one at long range. Confidence in the details of the track forecast remains low since the forward speed of the cyclone and timing of the cold front will make the difference in whether or not the system moves inland over Central America or remains offshore. If the low-level center can continue consolidating, then some slow strengthening should begin later today. More significant intensification is possible Monday assuming a central core can develop, with almost all guidance showing the system near hurricane strength on Tuesday. After that, strong vertical wind shear, possible land interaction, and intrusions of dry air and stable air will likely cause a weakening trend. Very little change was made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the corrected-consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, through Wednesday. 2. The depression is expected to strengthen as it approaches Guatemala and El Salvador, and tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required for portions of those areas later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 11.0N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 11.6N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 11.9N 91.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 12.2N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 12.4N 89.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 11.8N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 10.7N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 9.5N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:30 UTC