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Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

Convection has been pulsing in the northwestern quadrant of Otis 
during the past several hours, with less overall convective 
activity than this afternoon.  Microwave data and ship reports 
suggests the center is southeast of the main area of deep 
convection.  The initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt, in line with 
recent Dvorak T-number estimates.  
 
Otis appears to be moving north-northwest at about 4 kt.  The 
biggest change to report on this advisory is that there's been a 
notable northwest shift in the NHC track forecast.  The synoptic 
pattern of a trough over northwestern Mexico and a ridge over the 
northwestern Caribbean would seem to favor a slow north-northwest 
track for the next few days.  Much of the GFS-based guidance, 
however, appears to be too intertwined with the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone, resulting in many of the aids not showing enough 
motion during the next few days or even a track southward.  
This doesn't seem realistic, and I've adjusted the forecast a large 
distance to the northwest, with further northwest track changes 
possible on later forecasts.  

The storm will likely be in an environment of light-to-moderate 
shear, with fairly high mid-level humidity over very warm water.  
These conditions should promote gradual strengthening, which is 
shown to begin after 12 hours to give the system some time to 
re-align vertically.  An increase in shear and possible land 
interaction is forecast to cause Otis to level off in intensity 
around midweek. This NHC intensity prediction is near the higher 
end of the guidance, closer to the statistical guidance than the 
dynamical models, the latter of which seem to be too low given the 
large-scale environment.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 11.1N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 11.7N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 12.6N  97.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 13.6N  97.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 14.5N  98.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 15.2N  98.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 16.1N  99.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 17.6N 100.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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