ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Convection has been pulsing in the northwestern quadrant of Otis during the past several hours, with less overall convective activity than this afternoon. Microwave data and ship reports suggests the center is southeast of the main area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt, in line with recent Dvorak T-number estimates. Otis appears to be moving north-northwest at about 4 kt. The biggest change to report on this advisory is that there's been a notable northwest shift in the NHC track forecast. The synoptic pattern of a trough over northwestern Mexico and a ridge over the northwestern Caribbean would seem to favor a slow north-northwest track for the next few days. Much of the GFS-based guidance, however, appears to be too intertwined with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in many of the aids not showing enough motion during the next few days or even a track southward. This doesn't seem realistic, and I've adjusted the forecast a large distance to the northwest, with further northwest track changes possible on later forecasts. The storm will likely be in an environment of light-to-moderate shear, with fairly high mid-level humidity over very warm water. These conditions should promote gradual strengthening, which is shown to begin after 12 hours to give the system some time to re-align vertically. An increase in shear and possible land interaction is forecast to cause Otis to level off in intensity around midweek. This NHC intensity prediction is near the higher end of the guidance, closer to the statistical guidance than the dynamical models, the latter of which seem to be too low given the large-scale environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 11.1N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 11.7N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.5N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.2N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 17.6N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:27 UTC