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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

The depression's cloud pattern has not changed much during the last
several hours.  Deep convection remains mainly confined to the
western portion of the circulation due to southeasterly wind shear.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin all support maintaining the initial wind
speed at 30 kt.

The shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to lessen
later today and it should be relatively light for the next few
days.  In addition, sea surface temperatures along the expected
track are between 28-29 deg C, which are favorable for
intensification.  Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely
during the next 3 to 4 days.  The global models show an increase in
southwesterly shear by the end of the forecast period, and that
should cause the intensity of the system to level off. The GFDL and
HWRF models are the most aggressive bringing this system to
hurricane strength in a couple of days with continued strengthening
thereafter.  Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show much less
strengthening.  Given the expected conducive environmental
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is increased a little from
the previous one and is good agreement with the intensity model
consensus.

The cyclone is moving slowly westward, 275/4 kt. A general westward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so while mid-level ridging builds to the north and
northeast of the system.  After that time, a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is predicted due to a large-scale trough
eroding the western periphery of the ridge.  The NHC track forecast
is nudged to the left of the previous one and is close to the
various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 13.2N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 13.0N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 12.8N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 13.0N 135.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 13.6N 137.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 15.3N 140.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 16.8N 144.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 18.5N 147.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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